Security beef-up in Jammu and Kashmir: What is the reason behind Centre's move?

A large number of troops are being deployed in the Kashmir Valley, which has led to rising concerns among the local masses and regional political parties.

On August 1, an additional 280 battalions of Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs) were sent to Kashmir. Usually, one battalion of CAPF has about 1,000 security personnel.

Last week, the Centre had rushed about 10,000 CAPFs to Kashmir.

These troops were an addition to already-stationed 65 battalions of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) and 20 other battalions of security forces, deployed for smooth conduct of the Amarnath Yatra.

The massive deployment of security personnel in the Valley has raised many speculations regarding the purpose of such movement.

The knee-jerk reaction to the move was attributing the deployment to the abrogation of Articles 35A and 370 of the Indian Constitution, which grant special status to the state of Jammu and Kashmir. Even though the matter is pending in court, the BJP had included it in their manifestos of 2019 as well as 2014.

In fact, post-general elections, Union Home Minister Amit Shah has consistently reiterated the party’s stance to repeal special status given to J&K, arguing that it comes in the way of the state’s economic growth and development.

The deployment of forces drew sharp criticism from the former chief ministers of Jammu and Kashmir. People’s Democratic Party (PDP) chief Mehbooba Mufti, in a tweet, said the Centre’s move of deploying additional security personnel in the Valley “has created fear psychosis among people”.

Centre’s decision to deploy additional 10,000 troops to the valley has created fear psychosis amongst people. There is no dearth of security forces in Kashmir. J&K is a political problem which won’t be solved by military means. GOI needs to rethink & overhaul its policy.

— Mehbooba Mufti (@MehboobaMufti) July 27, 2019

Meanwhile, National Conference (NC) leader Omar Abdullah said deployment of additional forces may lead to the situation “worsening” in the Valley. He, and party president Farooq Abdullah, met Prime Minister Narendra Modi to discuss the issue. After the meeting, Omar  tweeted:

We requested him that no precipitous steps of any sort should be taken that may result in situation in the state, particularly the valley, worsening. We specifically asked him to let subjudice matters be settled by the courts & other matters be settled by an elected government. — Omar Abdullah (@OmarAbdullah) August 1, 2019

However, J&K Governor Satya Pal Malik refuted such speculations. He said the people of the state should not pay heed to “rumors”; adding that “everything is normal”.

Another conjecture has suggested that the state will be bifurcated, with Jammu being made a separate state, and Kashmir and Ladakh getting the status of Union Territories, according to a report in The Times of India.

Considering the reputation of the Modi government to break away from conventions – such as announcement of Union Budget on February 1, instead of the last day of the month and scrapping of Railway Budget – it is being speculated that PM Modi is planning another departure from convention.

Therefore, there is a supposition that PM Modi might be breaking away from the past and hoisting the national flag from Kashmir instead of the Red Fort (New Delhi) on August 15.

Local leaders of the BJP have told mediapersons that the security build-up is a part of preparations for state elections. J&K has been under President's Rule since July last year, as the state government fell after the fallout between BJP and PDP. The Election Commission had earlier announced that Assembly elections will take place in J&K by the end of this year.

There is another speculation about giving voting rights to the refugees of West Pakistan. This has been a long-standing demand of a section of Kashmiris.

The security beef-up could also be a measure to strengthen the counter-insurgency grid in the Valley.

Sources told The Times of India that the additional deployment came after receiving intelligence about a major terrorist attack by Pakistan-backed terrorist groups in the Valley.

It is also possible that the government is attempting to make arrangements for the return of Kashmiri Pandits to their homeland.  

It is also being realised that the troop build-up could be related to an ordinance that the Modi government may promulgate after the ongoing Budget Session comes to an end on August 7.