No takers for Rahul Gandhi? Assam to Kerala, why Congress is floundering in key poll-bound states

In a major embarrassment for the party in Kerala, senior Congress leader Mani Shankar Aiyar predicted that Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan will retain power for a third consecutive time.

• Congress faces internal conflicts in Assam, Kerala, TN, and Bengal
• Bhupen Borah's resignation in Assam highlights party infighting
• Congress-DMK alliance strained over power-sharing demands

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The brief resignation episode involving Assam leader Bhupen Kumar Borah, and the controversy sparked by Mani Shankar Aiyar’s remarks in Kerala have once again brought out the Congress’ continuing struggle with internal factionalism in poll-bound states.

In Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, poll-bound states where the Congress is a key stakeholder, fissures have emerged that reveal not just the challenges within the state unit but also the disconnect with the central leadership.

The BJP has been quick to latch on to this. “Loyalists who spent their entire lifetime in Congress; now openly speaking against Rahul Gandhi! When your own leaders do not believe in your leadership; imagine the state of your party. Mani Shankar Iyer-“I am a Rajivian not a Rahulian" Congress vs Rahul Gandhi! Congress rejects Rahul Gandhi!” BJP spokesperson Pradeep Bhandari said in a post on X.

Aiyar on Kerala elections

In a major embarrassment for the party in Kerala, senior Congress leader Mani Shankar Aiyar predicted that Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan will retain power for a third consecutive time. He also said the LDF government in the state was doing outstanding work.

He made the remarks at the international seminar titled "Vision 2031: Development and Democracy”. The remark drew sharp criticism, with the Congress publicly distancing themselves from his statement. However, on Monday, Aiayar stood by his assertion that the Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF would retain power in Kerala.

"As a Congressman, I want the UDF to win. As a Gandhian, I am obliged to tell the truth, irrespective of what I wish. I am not a voter in Kerala, but I think he is going to get another term," Aiyar told PTI.

Kerala has historically followed a pattern of alternating governments between the two main political fronts. Traditionally, voters have rotated power between the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the Left Democratic Front (LDF).

However, this cycle was disrupted when the LDF, led by the CPM’s Pinarayi Vijayan, retained power in 2021 after first winning in 2016.

Borah episode in Assam

Assam Congress leader Bhupen Kumar Borah on Monday confirmed his resignation from the party. While refraining from elaborating on the reasons behind his decision, Borah hinted that the developments stemmed from internal issues beginning with the Behali episode.

"You know a little about why I resigned; everyone knows it. All of this started from Behali," he said.

He also suggested dissatisfaction with the party's internal decision-making processes, particularly regarding participation in the Majuli yatra.

Borah sent his resignation letter to Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge. He also wrote to Rahul Gandhi. In his letter, Borah said he was being ignored by the party leadership and was not given his due in the state unit.

Meanwhile, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma had described Borah’s resignation as evidence of a “deepening crisis” within the Congress and had announced plans to meet him on Tuesday.

However, later Monday, it was said that Borah has withdrawn his decision following discussions with the party’s national leadership, including Gandhi.

Borah’s resignation revived memories of 2015, when Himanta Biswa Sarma exited the Congress — a move that significantly altered the state’s political trajectory.

Sarma’s departure proved to be a turning point. In the years that followed, the Congress steadily lost its dominance in Assam, while the BJP consolidated and expanded its foothold in the state.

Congress versus DMK in Tamil Nadu

The Congress–DMK alliance in Tamil Nadu is facing visible strain, with disagreements over power-sharing.

At the heart of the friction is the Congress push for a greater role within the alliance, including demands linked to power-sharing.

Chief Minister MK Stalin has categorically ruled out any formal power-sharing arrangement, signalling that the DMK intends to retain control over governance decisions without conceding executive space to its ally.

Some Congress leaders have taken an assertive tone publicly. MP Manickam Tagore has warned that sidelining the party could trigger political consequences. Such remarks suggest unease within the state unit over its current standing in the alliance.

Complicating the equation is the emergence of actor-turned-politician Vijay and his party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). There have been signals that TVK could be open to cooperation against common political rivals.

Tryst with Mamata

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has ruled out any formal pre-poll tie-up with Congress in the 2026 Bengal polls, saying her party will go solo.

Separately, the Congress high command recently decided that the party will contest all 294 assembly seats in West Bengal on its own, breaking from past coalition patterns.

While both the Congress and TMC are constituents of the broader INDIA bloc at the national level, the partnership has not evolved into a formal seat-sharing or electoral arrangement in West Bengal for the upcoming Assembly elections.