MC Daily Monsoon Tracker: Heavy rains spell trouble on price front

Heavy rainfall in central India threatens supply chains and food prices

India's rainfall surplus widened again to 7.77 percent as of September 29, as heavy rains battered parts of central India and north even as monsoon has begun to retreat, data released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) shows.

Heavy rainfall will likely keep food prices elevated, experts have said.

"Heavy rainfall in key states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh have led to supply disruptions for vegetables, causing prices to spike sharply," said Madhavi Arora, chief economist, Emkay Global.

Rain surplus also widened in Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh following heightened rainfall activity, a Moneycontrol analysis of data shows.

Gujarat’s surplus increased to 48 percent from 41 percent in the previous Rajasthan’s to 56 percent from 55 percent.

Water levels of the main reservoirs are 13 percent above normal, compared with 18 percent in the previous week. Reservoirs in Bihar, Himachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Punjab continue to have below-normal water capacity.

There is a shortfall of 65 percent in Punjab, as the farm state got below-average rainfall.

Kharif acreage, on September 20, was 0.8 percent more than the last five-year average of 110.5 million hectares. Paddy acreage remained 3 percent above average, while coarse cereals was 6.4 percent higher.

Sowing of jute, cotton and pulses was lower compared with the normal area.