It will be a while before India and Pakistan can have a meaningful dialogue. Here’s why

Prime Minister Sharif told the Dubai-based Al Arabia TV that Pakistan has learned its lesson after three wars with India and said it now wants peace with its neighbour. (Image: Reuters)

Shehbaz Sharif’s declaration that Pakistan would hold talks with India only if the Narendra Modi government restored Article 370 of the Indian constitution, which guaranteed a special status to Jammu and Kashmir, appears to have rendered the possibility of a resumption of talks between the two estranged neighbours a non-starter.

It also shows the Pakistani Prime Minister is concerned that an offer for talks with India, without any assurances of major concessions on Kashmir by New Delhi, will prove problematic for the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-led coalition in that country’s forthcoming parliamentary election.

On Monday, Prime Minister Sharif told the Dubai-based Al Arabia TV that Pakistan has learned its lesson after three wars with India and said it now wants peace with its neighbour.

Sharif said he has asked Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, the President of the United Arab Emirates, to use his friendly ties with India to bring the two sides to discuss all outstanding issues. He said Pakistan wanted “sincere and serious” talks with India on “burning issues” such as Kashmir.

“My message to the Indian leadership and Prime Minister Narendra Modi is let us sit at the table and have serious and sincere talks to resolve all our burning issues, like Kashmir,” he said.

Conditions apply

But a day later, the Pakistani Prime Minister’s Office added that talks between the two sides could only be held if Article 370 was restored. He mentioned the “human rights violations in Kashmir” and India’s revocation of the special status of J&K.”

The Pakistani PMO’s statement said talks with India can only take place after the country reverses its “illegal action of August 5, 2019,” which was aimed at illegally altering the demography of the Muslim-majority state of Indian occupied Kashmir.

“Without India’s revocation of this step, negotiations are not possible,” it added.

Sharif’s offer for talks with India comes at a time when Pakistan is facing a severe economic crisis, political unrest, strains in its civil-military relationship, and a renewed spate of terrorist attacks in different parts of the country, including capital Islamabad.

According to Pakistani political commentator Zahid Hussain, “The perpetual state of confrontation among political forces and the virtual collapse of state institutions have pushed the country close to anarchy.”

He added, “With the prospect of a sovereign default staring us in the face, the outlook for the economy seems extremely grim.” Hussain said Pakistan faces daunting internal and external challenges.

Indian view

Indian observers feel Sharif made the offer for peace talks for two reasons. One, during his talks with UAE President Sheikh Mohamad bin Zayed, the Pakistani Prime Minister must have sought his intervention to urge India to return to the talks table.

But he is worried that the Opposition, led by Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), will turn the talks with India into a major electoral plank against the government unless he can get some major concessions from Delhi on the Kashmir issue.

Some observers think Sharif’s demand for restoration of Article 370 is a bargaining position to nudge India into making an assurance that it will restore the statehood of Jammu and Kashmir without bringing about significant demographic changes to alter the Muslim-majority population of Kashmir.

Economic crisis

Sharif’s offer for talks comes in the midst of a World Bank report that described Pakistan as the weakest economy in South Asia.

The World Bank Global Economic Prospects report forecast Pakistan’s economic growth to slip further to 2 percent during the current year — down two percentage points from its June 2022 estimate.

The report said that Pakistan’s economic output was not only declining but also bringing down the regional growth rate as well.

According to ANI, the report cited last year’s floods as the reason for the current situation in the country.

Pakistan’s forex reserves, which hit a new low of $4.6 billion, will only be enough to pay foreign import bills for three weeks.

According to analysts, Pakistan would need $33 billion as relief to tide over the current crisis.

The country, which is negotiating with the IMF for the latest tranche of its economic bailout, has also sought help from other friendly countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and China.

The resumption of talks with India will help it to revive its economy through trade and other economic cooperation and also encourage its foreign backers to invest in the country.

But Imran Khan’s current popularity has forced the Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to add caveats in his talks proposal, which may help him ward off criticism domestically but also make the possibility of dialogue with India a non-starter.

SCO summit: An opportunity for talks

Sharif will be one of the leaders who will come to India later this year for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, which is being held under India’s presidency.

Traditionally, the host country’s leader holds bilateral talks with the visiting leaders on the sidelines of the summit.

Therefore, a brief interaction between Sharif and Modi is possible on the SCO sidelines. But under the circumstances, it is likely to be a mere formality — an occasion to exchange pleasantries, and not an opportunity for serious talks.

The parliamentary elections are likely to be held in August. A new prime minister with a more stable government and support may be more confident in renewing the offer for talks with India.

However, by then, the ruling BJP-led coalition in India will be gearing up for the 2024 parliamentary elections.

Whether holding talks with Pakistan to normalise relations makes political sense will depend on the situation at the Line of Control and the region as a whole.

So, for a meaningful engagement to take place between India and Pakistan at the highest political level, perhaps both sides will have to wait for a little longer.