India could hike Russian LNG imports post Europe’s ban, says S&P Global Energy

India currently imports about half of its natural gas needs, with Qatar supplying 41 percent of the imports in FY25, followed by the US (19 percent) and the UAE (13 percent).

• India may boost Russian LNG imports if Europe bans Russian gas by 2027
• India's LNG intake depends on price discounts and sanctions risk
• India shifts to benchmark-driven LNG buying, speeds up biofuels adoption

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India could step up its intake of Russian LNG if Europe phases out Russian volumes due to the upcoming ban on gas, Kenneth Foo, global director for LNG price reporting, S&P Global Energy told Moneycontrol. However, the intake will depend upon pricing discounts and sanctions risk.

“A key geopolitical uncertainty remains Russian LNG post-2027, as Yamal volumes may be displaced from Europe due to the upcoming LNG/gas ban; Indian absorption of Russian supply will depend on pricing discounts, benchmark linkages and tolerance for geopolitical risk,” Foo said.

The European Union on Monday gave its final approval to ban imports of Russian gas from 2027. Russia used to be EU’s top supplier of gas before its invasion of Ukraine.

India currently imports about half of its natural gas needs, with Qatar supplying 41 percent of the imports in FY25, followed by the US (19 percent) and the UAE (13 percent).

India imported just under 26 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2025, with an additional 3.5–4 mtpa of long-term contracted volumes scheduled to start deliveries from 2026, as per S&P. The move is expected to narrow the country’s reliance on spot LNG purchases and increase sensitivity to global price benchmarks.

“Higher term supply leaves limited scope for spot LNG in 2026, especially if prices remain uncompetitive versus propane, naphtha and fuel oil,” Foo noted.

With both LNG and crude price outlooks weak, S&P highlighted that incremental LNG demand from refineries, CGD and industrial users will depend on LNG being competitive.

Early-2026 pricing briefly made LNG competitive with propane, triggering incremental demand, but this window has narrowed, highlighting India’s high price sensitivity, Foo said.

As global LNG supply expands, the country is positioning itself as a benchmark-driven swing buyer—selectively accessing spot and short-term cargoes when international price markers align with domestic alternatives—while simultaneously accelerating biofuels adoption to meet transport decarbonisation goals.