Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir exit poll results today: 5 times poll predictions went horribly wrong!

The exit poll results for the Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir Assembly election results will be released after 6.30 PM on Saturday. (Photo: PTI)

Assembly elections in Haryana set to draw to a close in a few hours from now, bringing the focus on the exit poll predictions for the two states that went to polls recently. While voting in the single-phase Haryana Assembly elections in underway, voting for the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections concluded on October 1.

Pollsters and news channels are expected to release their predictions on the winners in these two states that went to polls after voting concludes for the Haryana elections. The Election Commission of India bars the release of exit polls data during the voting process, and the data can only be made public 30 minutes after the last vote is cast.

Voting is scheduled to conclude at 6 PM today and the exit poll results are expected to begin coming in only after 6.30 PM on Saturday.

Haryana Exit Poll Result 2024 LIVE

What are Exit Polls?

Exit poll predictions are essentially post-election surveys based on voter feedback collected by survey agencies after voters have cast their votes. The data is then collated and predictions formed and released in terms of the number of seats and voting percentages. These predictions can vary from agency to agency depending upon the sampling size.

Exit poll predictions, though elaborate, only offer an indication of the mood of the voter and cannot be considered as a definite marker ahead of the results. A prominent factor behind this is that several exit polls have also got it wrong in the past.

Jammu and Kashmir Exit Poll Results 2024 LIVE

Exit Poll results: When pollsters got it all wrong!

While exit polls claim to be an accurate reflection of voter sentiment, there are several instances when these predictions have gone wrong.

Lok Sabha Elections 2024: As many as 12 exit polls predicted a landslide victory for the NDA, predicting a clear majority for the Bharatiya Janata Party on its own. The India Today- Axis My India exit poll predicted 361-401 seats to NDA, News 24-Today's Chanakya predicted 400 seats for the NDA while ABP News-C Voter said the NDA would win between 353-383 seats. Republic Bharat-P Marq also predicted that 359 seats for the NDA.

However, the election results dealt a blow to the BJP which had entered the elections with the ‘400 paar’ slogan. The NDA won 293 seats and the BJP, with 240 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, fell short of winning a simple majority on its own. The Congress-led INDIA bloc, on the other hand, bagged 235 seats and bypassed the estimates by most pollsters.

Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections 2023: A state that has traditionally seen a Congress-BJP fight, the BJP managed to wrest control from the Congress in the Assembly elections in 2023. The party won 54 seats in the 90-member Assembly and ended the five-year tenure of the Congress which came to power in 2018, ending the 15-year rule of BJP under CM Raman Singh.

Most pollsters had predicted a tight contest between the Congress and BJP, with some predicting a clear edge to the grand old party. ABP News-C Voter had predicted 41 to 53 seats for the Congress and 36 to 48 seats for the BJP, India Today-Axis My India had forecast 40 to 50 seats for the Congress and 36 to 46 seats for the BJP, India TV-CNX had forecast 46 to 56 seats for the Congress and 30 to 40 seats for the BJP, News 24-Today’s Chanakya predicted that the Congress would secure a clear majority with 57 seats (plus-minus eight) while the BJP would get 33 seats (plus-minus eight).

UP Assembly Elections 2017: Coming soon after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s disruptive decision to demonetise Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 currency notes, most exit polls had predicted a hung Assembly in the country’s most politically-crucial state.

However, the results proved exit polls wrong as the BJP managed to win an overwhelming 325 seats in the 403-member House. Yogi Adityanath, who had been Gorakhpur MP till then, became the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh for the first time. The elections also brought BJP back to power in the state for the first time after 1993.

West Bengal Assembly Elections 2021: The Assembly elections held in West Bengal in 2021, less than two years after the Lok Sabha elections saw the BJP make big gains in the state at the cost of the CPI(M), most pollsters predicted a majority for the saffron party in the 294-member state Assembly.

India Today’s Axis My India exit poll predicted 134-160 seats for the BJP and 130-156 seats for the TMC, Republic TV-CNX projected BJP winning 138-148 seats and TMC lagging behind with 128-138 seats. However, the actual results showed the BJP winning just 77 seats while the TMC returned to power with a resounding mandate.

Bihar Assembly Election 2020: Most pollsters had predicted a victory for the Rashtriya Janata Dal-led coalition in Bihar in the 2020 Assembly elections. India Today-Axis My India as well as Today’s Chanakya had predicted a victory for the RJD-led alliance.

However, the results showed the BJP-JD(U) alliance under Nitish Kumar post a victory in the state, despite the RJD emerging as the single-largest party with 75 of the 243 seats. The BJP, on the other hand, bagged 74 seats while the JD(U) emerged as the winner in 43 seats. The Congress won 19, the CPI(ML)L 9 and the AIMIM 5 seats.