Jammu and Kashmir Exit Poll 2024: Hung assembly likely as NC-Cong may miss majority mark, show exit polls

In the 2014 assembly elections, exit polls accurately forecasted a hung assembly in the then-state of Jammu and Kashmir. No party achieved a clear majority in the 90-member assembly, with the People's Democratic Party (PDP) emerging as the largest party, winning 28 seats. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) closely followed, securing 25 seats.

Exit polls suggest the National Congress-Congress alliance has an edge in Jammu and Kashmir's highly anticipated and fiercely contested three-phase elections. Though voter turnout in 2024 was slightly lower than the 2014 assembly polls, militancy-affected areas saw record participation. Over 40 percent of candidates contested as independents, reportedly one of the highest figures in the region's electoral history. Learn more.

The Congress-NC alliance will get more than 55 seats in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly polls, general secretary Ghulam Ahmad Mir claimed on Saturday as several exit polls gave an edge to the combine.

"The people of Jammu and Kashmir have voted to change the last 10 years of BJP rule. Whatever the exit polls show, our belief is that the vote was for change, for keeping the BJP out in both regions (Kashmir and Jammu)," Mir told PTI.

A recent survey by the Centre for Global Studies at Delhi University predicted that the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance is projected to win 45 seats in the 90-member J&K assembly, with the BJP trailing behind with 27 seats.

The Axis My India pollster has predicted 35-45 seats for the Congress-NC alliance, followed by BJP with 24-34 seats. PDP is likely to get 4-6 seats and 8-23 for others

J&K Congress president Tair Hameed Karra said the Congress-NC alliance is in a comfortable position to form the next government in the Union territory.

“This election was primarily to keep the BJP out of the power corridors, restoration of statehood along with land and job guarantees. I am seeing the (Congress-NC) alliance in a comfortable position to form the government,” Karra said.

People of Jammu and Kashmir have voted for peace, security, brotherhood, development and employment, said Congress leader Harish Rawat on exit poll predictions for Jammu and Kashmir.

“Congress and National Conference will together form a strong government there and work for peace along with the Union government,” he said.

On exit polls, former deputy CM of J&K and BJP leader Kavinder Gupta told ANI, "It is only in the exit polls that Congress-NC has got these seats, but BJP will emerge as the biggest party once the correct results are out.”

He expressed confidence of getting more than 35 seats in Jammu province and the remaining from Kashmir. BJP will be in a better condition in Kashmir, he stated.

Jammu and Kashmir BJP President Ravinder Raina expressed confidence in BJP’s prospects of winning in the recently concluded Assembly polls. "I am confident that BJP will emerge as the single largest party in Jammu & Kashmir on 8th October. J&K's next government will be of BJP," he said.

Exit polls have predicted a hung assembly in J&K and indicate that Independents and smaller parties could win around 15 out of the 90 seats in the Union Territory. If the predictions hold true, then they could hold the key to power in Jammu and Kashmir.

The Gulistan exit poll has predicted a closer contest with 31-36 seats for the NC-Congress combine and 28-30 seats for the BJP. It also indicates a ‘kingmaker’ role for independent candidates who may end up with 19-23 seats and the PDP left with 5-7.

NC-Congress: 40-48

BJP: 27-32

PDP: 6-12

Others: 6-11

National Conference vice president and Ganderbal candidate Omar Abdullah said that he was amazed that channels are bothering with exit polls especially after the fiasco of the recent general elections.

“I’m ignoring all the noise on channels, social media, WhatsApp etc because the only numbers that matter will be revealed on the 8th of Oct. The rest is just time pass,” he wrote on X.

Dainik Bhaskar has also given an edge to National Conference-Congress alliance, projecting 35-40 seats. This is followed by BJP at 20-25 seats and PDP at 4-7 seats.

Matrize has released its exit poll predictions for J&K:

BJP - 25

Congress - 12

NC - 15

PDP - 28

Others - 7

Total Assembly seats: 90

BJP: 23 -27

Congress-NC: 46-50

PDP: 7 -11

Others: 4-6

Jammu Projected Seat Share (43 seats) as per India Today-C Voter exit poll:

NC+: 11-15

BJP: 27-31

PDP: 0-2

Others: 0-1

Polling for 90 Assembly seats in Haryana concluded today and now all eyes are on the exit poll predictions that will be released shortly. The election in Haryana was held in a single phase while that in Jammu and Kashmir was held in three phases.

Click here for all the latest updates on Haryana poll predictions

The competition is fierce between the Congress-NC alliance and the BJP, with the PDP also in the running alongside several strong independent candidates.

Prominent leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah (BJP), Lok Sabha Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi, and former J&K Chief Ministers Farooq Abdullah, Omar Abdullah, and Mehbooba Mufti, campaigned extensively for weeks.

In the previous Assembly polls, the PDP emerged as the single largest party with 28 seats, while the BJP secured 25 seats, NC (15) and Congress (12).

The overall poll percentage in Jammu and Kashmir Assembly election stood at around 63.88 per cent, which was higher than what was seen in the Lok Sabha polls.

The overall poll percentage recorded in the Lok Sabha elections was 57.89 per cent.

Jammu and Kashmir has not held assembly elections since 2014. The polls were due to be held in early 2019 following the dissolution of the legislative body of the erstwhile state in 2018.

However, after the bifurcation of Jammu and Kashmir into Union territories in August 2019, the Assembly polls could not be held due to various reasons, including a delimitation exercise that was completed in 2022.

The Supreme Court had directed the Centre to conclude the election process by September 30, 2024.

The National Conference on Friday raised strong objections against the nomination of five MLAs to the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly by the lieutenant governor, saying this move is "unconstitutional and undemocratic".

The National Conference said such powers lie solely with an elected government and cannot be exercised by the lieutenant governor in the absence of an elected body. "We have raised strong objections against the nomination of five MLAs to the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly by the LG. Any such move is unconstitutional and undemocratic," Jammu and Kashmir National Conference provincial president Rattan Lal Gupta said.

The lieutenant governor will nominate these members based on the advice of the Home Ministry. This process follows an amendment to the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019 which was further revised on July 26, 2023 to introduce these nominations.

Asked about his expectations from the exit polls, National Conference (NC) president Farooq Abdullah said he does not believe in them.

"The votes are in the boxes. We will know on October 8 what exactly is in and out. Who has got the majority and who has not, so, let us wait till October 8. I do not believe in exit polls. I have never believed in them and I will never," said Abdullah.

"It is all speculation and I do not agree with speculation. Let the boxes open, we will know who stands where," he added.

Candidates and their supporters from across parties have been camping outside the EVM strong rooms in Rajouri even as authorities have made robust arrangements.

Counting of votes of 90 assembly segments across Jammu and Kashmir will take place on October 8.

People's Democratic Party (PDP) leader Iltija Mufti said the  incoming government in J&K will be a "toothless tiger" and claimed its chief minister will be a "rubber stamp" and a "glorified mayor" of a "municipality." In a post on X, Iltija said, "With the LG 'nominating' five MLAs and the chief secretary changing transaction of business rules, it's clear that the incoming government will be a toothless tiger."

The poll panel has said violations of the guidelines may lead to legal action, including fines and imprisonment. "The restriction applies to all forms of media, including newspapers, television channels, radio, online news portals, social media platforms and messaging services like WhatsApp, Telegram, Facebook, YouTube, Instagram etc. It also applies to political party candidates, polling agencies and any individuals engaged in election-related activities," the statement said. It said the CEO, along with the district election officers, returning officers and law-enforcement agencies, will monitor compliance

In the 2014 Jammu and Kashmir elections, the exit poll predictions were close to the actual results. The exit polls had correctly predicted a hung assembly. The CVoter exit poll said that BJP would get 27-33 seats, PDP would get 32-38, and National Conference (NC) 8-14. After the results were declared, PDP emerged as the single largest party with 28 seats while BJP won 25 seats.

In the 2014 J&K elections, the PDP entered into a post-poll alliance with BJP after none of the parties secured a simple majority. PDP was the single largest party in the assembly with 28 seats. It was followed by BJP (25), NC (15) and Congress (12).

National Conference (NC) chief Farooq Abdullah said his party would not enter into a post-poll alliance with the BJP for government formation J&K.

"We cannot go with the BJP. The vote which we have got here is the vote against the BJP. The difficulties they put the Muslims in, bulldozed their shops, houses, mosques and schools, do you think we will go with them?" Abdullah told PTI.

According to the EC norms under Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, the exit poll results are prohibited from the start of voting until half an hour after the polling ends.

This restriction comes into effect as soon as the assembly or Lok Sabha elections are declared and remains in place until the voting process has been completed across all participating states within the stipulated cycle.

Here's a look at the key seats and candidates to watch out for

Ganderbal: Omar Abdullah (INDIA) versus Bashir Ahmed Mir (PDP)

Budgam: Omar Abdullah (INDIA) versus Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi (PDP)

Nowshera: Ravinder Raina (BJP) versus Surinder Chowdhary (NC) versus Haw Nawaz (PDP)

Nagrota: Devinder Singh Raina (BJP) versus Balbir Singh (Congress)/Joginder Singh (NC)

Pulwama: Mohammad Khalil Bandh (NC) versus Waheed Para (PDP)

Srigujwara-Bijbehara: Sofi Yousuf (BJP) versus Bashir Ahmed Veeri (NC) versus  Iltija Mufti (PDP)

Chhamb: Rajiv Sharma (BJP) versus Tara Chand (INDIA)

Lal Chowk:  Er Aijaz Hussain (BJP) versus Ahsan Pardesi (NC) versus Zuhaib Yousf Mir (PDP)

Charar-i-Sharif: Zahid Hussain (BJP) versus Saif-Ud-Din Bhat (NC) versus Manzoor Ahmed Wani (PDP)

Reasi: Kuldeep Raj Dubey (BJP) versus Mumtaz Khan (Congress) versus Bodh Raj Meania (PDP)

Shri Mata Vaishno Devi: Baldev Raj Sharma (BJP) versus Bhupender Jamwal (Congress) versus Pratap Kishan Sharma (PDP)

The polling took place in three phases on September 18, 25 and October 1 and the result will be announced on October 8.

The Jammu and Kashmir exit poll predictions will be released today shortly after the conclusion of Haryana elections, which is taking place in a single phase.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah has claimed that incidents of violence have decreased by as much as 70 per cent in the three "hotspots" of Kashmir, the Northeast, and regions affected by Naxalism in the last ten years.

Strong determination, permanent and effective solutions as well as pro-development approach of the Narendra Modi government has brought about a transformation in Kashmir and other places where violence was rife, the senior BJP leader said.

"In ten years, people witnessed a huge change in the internal security landscape of the country. A decade ago, bomb blasts used to happen at regular intervals in these three hotspots -- Kashmir, Northeast, as well as the Left Wing Extremism-affected regions. It was so common in those days that such incidents were not even covered in the news," he said.

The last elections in the former state of Jammu and Kashmir were held in November-December 2014. Nearly four years later, in November 2018, the state assembly was dissolved. The following year, 2019, marked the beginning of a significant administrative change as the process of dividing the state into two separate Union Territories (UTs) commenced: Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and Ladakh.

Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Rajiv Kumar said that J&K assembly elections have marked a significant deepening of democracy, which will echo in the pages of history and continue to inspire a democratic spirit of the region for years to come.

He dedicated these elections to the people of J&K, acknowledging their determination and belief in the democratic process. “The peaceful and participative elections are historic, wherein democracy is taking root more profoundly than ever before, driven by the will of the people of J&K," he said.

The Congress on Friday strongly opposed the nomination of five MLAs before the government formation in Jammu and Kashmir, labelling any such move as an assault on democracy and the fundamental principles of the Constitution. For the first time in J&K, five nominated Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) will have a significant role in forming the new government following a decade-long hiatus. The lieutenant governor (LG) will nominate these members based on the advice of the Home Ministry, according to reports.

This process follows an amendment to the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019, which was further revised on July 26, 2023 to introduce these nominations.

In that case, the J&K assembly will expand to 95 members, increasing the majority threshold to 48 seats to form a government.

The exit poll predictions will start coming after voting concludes in Haryana. News channels will start airing exit poll predictions for both Haryana as well as Jammu and Kashmir post 6:30 pm onwards.