Electoral report card 2025: Winners, losers and the big picture

India’s electoral landscape witnessed significant re-alignments in 2025, even though it was a relatively quiet election year. The year saw just two assembly elections — Delhi and Bihar — and several local body polls but proved decisive for the two power centers in the country: the BJP-led NDA and the opposition-led INDIA bloc.

As the year draws to a close and the parties prepare for crucial electoral battles lined up in 2026, here's a quick look at the big winners and losers of 2025 in Moneycontrol's political report card.

Winners

BJP, NDA and brand Modi: The BJP, and its broader alliance NDA, pulled off a tour de force in 2025 with dominance through the year. BJP kicked off the year on a winning note when it to returned to power in Delhi after 27 years, dislodging the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and ending Arvind Kejriwal’s decade long rule. In the second half of 2025, BJP and its ally JD(U) scripted a stunning performance in Bihar and powered the NDA to 200-plus seats in the 243-member assembly. BJP emerged as the single-largest party, winning 89 seats at a stellar strike rate of nearly 90%. In the absence of a local face, the party banked primarily on Narendra Modi's national appeal — and it paid off handsomely.

The party also fared well in several bypolls and local elections this year. In February, BJP won the crucial Milkipur by-election, the prestigious Ayodhya turf, partly reversing the setback in the region during the Lok Sabha elections. It also wrested the Nuapada seat in Odisha from BJD during the bypolls in November. In December, BJP emerged as the single-largest party in the Maharashtra local body polls, with 117-129 president posts followed by Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena (53-54) and Ajit Pawar's NCP (37). It also made history in Thiruvananthapuram as VV Rajesh became BJP's first elected mayor in Kerala following the party's record victory in the civic body polls.

Nitish Kumar: Written off time and again by friends and foes alike, Nitish Kumar proved to be the ultimate survivor of Indian politics by retaining the Bihar throne for a record 10th time in 2025. The JD(U) chief led NDA to a handsome victory in the Bihar election and emerged as a fan favourite in the state despite a stiff challenge from younger Tejashwi Yadav and underlying clamour for change in leadership. The JD(U) almost doubled its seat tally to 85 in 2025, giving Nitish room to shrug off speculations of anti-incumbency, health issues and voter fatigue.

Devendra Fadnavis: BJP's powerful backroom strategist quietly strengthened the party's position in Maharashtra in 2025 despite facing internal squabbles amid discontentment expressed by deputy CM Shinde. The Maharashtra chief minister orchestrated BJP's landslide in the December civic elections, with the party securing 3,325 of 6,952 councillor seats (double its 2016 tally) and 129 president posts across 288 bodies. In all, Mahayuti totalled 207 wins. He also managed to keep the Mahayuti flock together and disciplined going into civic contests despite poaching concerns from the Shinde faction.

Chirag Paswan: The LJP (RV) leader was again one of the most bankable faces of NDA in Bihar after emerging as a high-leverage player within the alliance. Paswan, who is the food processing industries minister at the Centre, led his party to 19 seats in the elections out of 29 it contested, building on a strong Lok Sabha performance in 2024.

UDF in Kerala: The Congress-led UDF scripted an impressive turnaround in the Kerala local body elections, just months ahead of the crucial assembly polls in the state. The UDF topped a vote share of 38.8% (11.38 lakh more votes than LDF). The historic sweep comes as a shot in the arm for the out-of-power UDF and signals growing anti-incumbency against Pinarayi Vijayan's LDF ahead of 2026 assembly elections.

Losers

INDIA bloc: The opposition bloc, which was cobbled together as an anti-BJP force before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, crumbled apart in 2025 as the focus shifted from the national picture to state-level priorities. Both as a bloc and independently, the opposition parties had a disappointing 2025 after failing to make any significant gains this year, except in Kerala. Earlier this year, AAP declared that the INDIA bloc was only for the Lok Sabha polls and walked out of the alliance. Later, the JMM exited the alliance before the Bihar polls. J&K chief minister Omar Abdullah recently summarised the opposition's position rather effectively when he said that the INDIA bloc is on life support. Since the debacle in Bihar, the Congress is again facing questions over its ability to lead the bloc, signalling a rocky road ahead in 2026.

Arvind Kejriwal: For the AAP convenor, 2025 exposed multiple chinks in the armour — an extended stint in jail, corruption allegations and persistent governance disruption amid frequent run-ins with the Delhi Lieutenant Governor. This created a perception of instability, eventually prompting voters in the national capital to hit the reset button. After scripting two landslide victories in Delhi, AAP was edged out by a resurgent BJP in 2025. The party suffered a staggering erosion of 40 seats compared to 2020. With the capital lost, AAP ended the year with Punjab as its only state where it remains in power, shrinking its national footprint significantly.

Tejashwi Yadav: The RJD leader was hoping for his moment in the sun after leading his party to a spirited performance in the 2020 Bihar polls. However, Tejashwi and his party were pushed to the brink following the NDA juggernaut in the October election. The young turk and the scion of the Yadav dynasty now has two back-to-back defeats under his belt, prompting a major rethink within the RJD which is often saddled by the dark past of the Lalu-Rabri era.

Rahul Gandhi: Though the Congress did not lose any major polls this year, the continued inability of the grand old party to win state elections - alone or with allies - has continued to define the party’s trajectory under Rahul Gandhi, its de facto leader. The party had a golden chance to seize the moment following an enouraging boost in 2024 general election when it improved its seat tally to 99 and emerged as an undisputed force within the opposition bloc. However, the INDIA bloc has since crumbled while the Congress missed the chance to keep the opposition flock united and exert pressure on BJP. Rahul Gandhi's "vote chori" plank also fell flat with the people with voters of Bihar completely rejecting the party in the state polls.

The big picture

The BJP-led NDA clearly emerged as the dominant force in 2025, beginning and ending the year on a high — from its return to power in Delhi to emphatic wins in Bihar and a strong showing in the Maharashtra local body elections. In contrast, the Congress-led INDIA bloc saw a sharp erosion in both political capital and alliance dynamics, failing to sustain the momentum of its impressive rebound in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The momentum is clearly with NDA as India heads into crucial elections in 2026 in states like Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and the Union Territory of Puducherry.