Broader NDA in offing: Decoding BJP's push for an alliance reset ahead of Tamil Nadu polls

Tamil Nadu CM E Palaniswami and Anbumani Ramadoss announcing the AIADMK-PMK tie-up on Wednesday. (Image: X/@EPSTamilNadu)

• BJP and AIADMK in talks over expanding NDA ahead of 2026 Tamil Nadu elections
• AIADMK opposes BJP's push to include smaller parties, fearing internal instability
• BJP seeks broader alliance vs DMK; AIADMK focuses on leadership clarity.

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A key friction point has emerged as talks between the BJP and the AIADMK gather pace ahead of the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections. While the BJP is pushing to expand the NDA by bringing smaller regional parties back into the fold, there is strong resistance from the AIADMK leadership to reopening old doors.

Senior BJP leaders see a broad-based NDA as essential to counter the DMK-led alliance, while the AIADMK, under Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS), is wary of accommodating players who could weaken his grip over the party and complicate seat-sharing.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah and AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami were scheduled to meet in Delhi late Wednesday to discuss alliance expansion and poll strategy. The talks coincided with the return of the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) faction led by Anbumani Ramadoss to the NDA.

After meeting Palaniswami in Chennai earlier in the day, Ramadoss hinted that more parties could join the NDA in the coming weeks -- a remark that reinforced the BJP's view that the anti-DMK vote needs to be consolidated early.

Sources said the BJP's national leadership is keen to bring back expelled AIADMK leaders O Panneerselvam (OPS) and TTV Dhinakaran, as well as Premlatha Vijayakanth's DMDK, all of whom were NDA allies in the past, with its argument rooted in pure electoral arithmetic.

Tamil Nadu has 234 Assembly seats, with western, southern and delta regions often determining outcomes. In 2021, the DMK-led alliance won 159 seats, while the AIADMK-BJP combine was restricted to 75. The BJP itself secured just four seats, but secured a vote share of around 2.6% statewide with votes much higher in urban pockets and select caste-dominated belts.

For the BJP, the lesson is clear that even small vote shifts can swing dozens of seats. Party strategists argue that outfits like the OPS' faction, Dhinakaran's AMMK and the DMDK together command between 6-10% of the vote in specific regions. Left outside the NDA, these votes could split the anti-DMK base, allowing the DMK to retain marginal seats.

The AIADMK, however, calculates differently. The EPS camp believes that overcrowding the alliance risks confusing voters by weakening the party's core narrative and forcing it to concede seats in areas where it still remains the principal challenger.

OPS and Dhinakaran are seen as having influence among the Thevar community, a politically significant OBC bloc in southern and delta districts. With both leaders also exploring channels with actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), the BJP believes leaving them outside the NDA risks fragmenting anti-DMK votes.

Party insiders said the urgency has also increased because the BJP wants to present a "much stronger NDA" when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Tamil Nadu later this month to kick-start the party's election campaign.

Palaniswami, on the other hand, is not pleased with the proposition of readmitting OPS or Dhinakaran. AIADMK sources said EPS sees both leaders as potential internal challengers whose return could dilute his authority and revive factionalism at a time when he is trying to project himself as the undisputed leader of the party.

"The AIADMK's priority is organisational stability and clarity of leadership," The Indian Express quoted a leader familiar with the discussions as saying. "EPS does not want parallel power centres emerging under the banner of alliance politics."

This resistance has placed the BJP in a delicate position, forcing it to explore the possibility of offering seats from its own quota to smaller allies to allay AIADMK concerns.

Adding a new dimension to the talks is the re-emergence of former Tamil Nadu BJP president K Annamalai as a back-channel interlocutor. Known for his better rapport with OPS and Dhinakaran, Annamalai recently met the party's national leadership in Delhi.

Some BJP leaders believe Annamalai's understanding of state-level alliance dynamics could be leveraged, even as the party maintains formal coordination through its current state leadership. Dhinakaran, while exiting the NDA last year, had publicly praised Annamalai for managing alliance affairs, a point not lost on the BJP's top brass.

Beyond smaller parties, the BJP is also keeping an eye on actor Vijay's TVK, though efforts to bring him into the NDA have so far failed. A section of BJP leaders has even floated the idea of an AIADMK-TVK understanding, with the BJP supporting from the sidelines or aligning with smaller outfits. Such an arrangement, however, remains speculative.

These manoeuvres come amid early signs of strain within the DMK-Congress alliance, with Congress leaders pushing for a larger share of seats and Cabinet berths, and some internally proposing options beyond the DMK.

"The perception of unease within the DMK alliance works to the NDA's advantage," a BJP leader told IE. "We have seen in states like Bihar how cracks within the Opposition can tilt the balance."

For now, the BJP's challenge lies in balancing coalition arithmetic with AIADMK's internal compulsions. Much of the battle for Tamil Nadu could be shaped by whether the BJP can persuade the AIADMK to accept a wider NDA or if it is forced to settle for a narrower but more stable alliance.