Bihar Polls: Will Nitish make history or become history? Spotlight on JD(U)'s tally on Nov 14

When it comes to Bihar and its politics, Nitish Kumar has undoubtedly been the enduring mainstay since 2005. So much so that it's often joked that no matter which alliance clinches power in Bihar, Nitish will remain the chief minister.

To his credit, Nitish has been at the front and centre of the post-Jungle Raj era politics of the state. The people of Bihar witnessed a relieving shift from the days of anarchy under the Lalu-Rabri period to an era of good governance and development under Nitish.

Fondly referred to as 'sushasan babu', Nitish gave the state a much-needed touch of governance while delivering the basics - from roads to industry. He also championed the cause of women, took a bold gamble by imposing prohibition and clamped down on the goonda raj which had come to define the state.

All this while, the JD(U) stalwart managed to consolidate the EBC voters (approx. 36% of the state's population) and mobilised the influential Kurmis (2.87% of state's population), the OBC community he hails from. This helped the JD(U) chief maintain a firm grip on power, offsetting the fallout of frequent shifts between BJP and RJD. It also allowed him to blunt the impact of the MY (Muslim-Yadav) factor, which has been the core winning mantra of successive leaders before him.

Nitish, 74, now stands at the dusk of his political career and is hoping to pull another rabbit out of the hat to silence those who have been questioning his ability to lead and govern the state. This isn't new to Nitish either.

Time and again, he has proved to be the ultimate survivor in Bihar politics despite JD(U)'s shrinking political space. As recent as last year, JD(U) won 12 seats in the Lok Sabha elections and managed to emerge as a kingmaker, along with Chandrababu Naidu's TDP, when BJP fell short of a majority. Nitish proved he can never be written off.

But challenges still engulf the chief minister as he seeks a record 10th term in 2025.

Though he continues to be the face of development politics in Bihar, Nitish is fighting long-standing anti-incumbency and voter fatigue. In several pre-poll opinion surveys, respondents said they prefer Tejashwi over Nitish as the CM of Bihar.

Of late, Nitish has also been combatting bad optics in public after videos of his unusual behaviour became political fodder for his rivals. His detractors, like Prashant Kishor, have been questioning his mental and physical wellbeing, wondering whether he is even capable of leading Bihar for another 5 years.

And then there are questions from within.

Though BJP and JD(U) leaders have said they are contesting under Nitish, there was a deliberate ambiguity in openly declaring him as the CM face initially. It was not until later that the alliance openly came out in support of Nitish.

It appeared that NDA clearly wants to watch the performance of JD(U) closely to determine whether Nitish should continue to lead it beyond the election or make way for a new leader. If the NDA sees a repeat of 2020 - victory in the elections but a bad performance by JD(U) - it could cast a serious question mark over Nitish’s future in Patna.

In 2020, JD(U) managed to win just 43 seats out of the 115 it contested but Nitish managed to retain the CM chair. The challenge before Nitish is to ensure that JD(U) emerges as a strong ally within NDA, especially after initial hiccups over who will assume the big brother's role vis-a-vis BJP.

Some exit polls have predicted that JD(U) may increase its seat share tally compared to 2020 and could even emerge as the single largest party in Bihar. If the predictions hold on November 14, then Nitish will emerge as the undisputed hero of this election, adding yet another chapter to his long record of political survival.