Bihar Elections 2025: The 'M-factor' in Tejashwi Yadav's bid to end RJD's 20-year power exile

RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav is the Mahagathbandhan's face in the Bihar elections. (File: PTI)

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has been out of power in Bihar for over 20 years and has once again pinned its hopes on Tejashwi Yadav, former Deputy CM and the political heir to party supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav, to end this long exile.

After coming tantalizingly close to forming government in the last Assembly election, Tejashwi is doubling down this time on what he calls the 'Triple M Factor', i.e., Muslims, Mahila (women), and Most Backward voters -- seen as the three decisive constituencies that could make or break the battle for the Pataliputra throne.

As Bihar heads into the 2025 Assembly polls, the contest is shaping up as a direct fight between the Nitish Kumar-led NDA and Tejashwi Yadav's Mahagathbandhan, though outfits like Jan Suraaj and AIMIM are attempting to inject a third front into the race.

Muslims make up around 18% of Bihar's population and holds sway in nearly 48 Assembly constituencies where they account for 20-40% of the voter population. Traditionally, this bloc has been RJD's core support base. But Tejashwi now faces fresh challenges from Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM and Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj, both eyeing the same vote bank.

To hold his ground, Tejashwi has been reaching out to Muslim voters through symbolic and policy gestures — from promising to review the Waqf Act to floating the idea of a Muslim Deputy CM if the Mahagathbandhan returns to power.

Simultaneously, RJD leaders have strategically sought to brand Owaisi and Kishor as "BJP's B-team," hoping to dissuade Muslim voters from shifting allegiance.

Over the past two decades, women voters have emerged as the most consistent power base for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and the NDA. Women now make up nearly half of Bihar's electorate — around 3.5 crore voters — and often outvote men. Schemes like cycle yojanas, liquor prohibition, and cash transfers have traditionally helped the NDA maintain their loyalty.

Tejashwi is attempting to counter this through a slew of welfare promises aimed at women:

- Rs 30,000 monthly salary and regularisation for 1.32 crore Jeevika Didis

- Rs 5 lakh insurance cover and Rs 2,000 monthly allowance

- Rs 2,500 monthly pension for all women

These pledges are designed as a direct response to the Nitish government's schemes, seeking to fracture a voter base that has long been NDA's silent bulwark.

Accounting for around 36% of Bihar's population, the Most Backward Classes (MBCs), a cluster of 114 smaller communities including Nai, Kewat, Luhar, Kumhar, Rajbhar, and Sahni, hold the true balance of power.

Nitish Kumar's enduring success for the better half of the past two decades is largely credited to his careful cultivation of this bloc through political representation and targeted welfare.

However, cracks are beginning to show. Sensing an opportunity, Tejashwi has elevated Mukesh Sahani, a leader from the Nishad community, as the Mahagathbandhan's Deputy CM face and promised a Rs 5 lakh interest-free entrepreneurship fund for traditional working-class castes like barbers, potters, and carpenters.

Congress, too, has announced a separate manifesto for the MBCs, amplifying the pitch for social justice.

The 'Triple M' strategy — Muslims, Mahila, and Most Backward — carries the potential to redefine Bihar's political landscape. Nitish Kumar's strength lies in retaining women and MBC support, while Tejashwi's best chance rests equally on consolidating the Muslim vote and making fresh inroads among the other two blocs.

Whether Tejashwi can turn this M-factor arithmetic into a winning equation will determine if Bihar finally sees a generational power shift — or another extension of Nitish’s long reign.