Beyond the arithmetic: The political significance of Dhinakaran’s NDA comeback

Dhinakaran’s party commands pockets of influence in southern Tamil Nadu

• AMMK led by TTV Dhinakaran rejoins NDA, backing BJP in Tamil Nadu
• Dhinakaran's party boosts NDA's reach among Thevar/Mukkulathor communities
• Move aims to unite anti-DMK votes and strengthen NDA ahead of elections

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The Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), led by TTV Dhinakaran, formally returned to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) on Wednesday. Dhinakaran met Union minister Piyush Goyal, the BJP’s Tamil Nadu in-charge, in Chennai to convey his party’s support to what he termed “good governance” in the state.

"With the larger objective in mind, we should not allow old issues to overshadow the party’s interests, the welfare of Tamil Nadu, or push them aside. Making compromises for the common good does not weaken us,” he told the media, in an apparent reference to his reluctance so far to accept AIADMK chief and Tamil Nadu CM E Palaniswami as the leader.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to address a public meeting at Maduranthakam in Tamil Nadu’s Chengalpattu district on January 23, as the BJP steps up its campaign ahead of the Assembly elections.

Why Dhinakaran quit NDA last year

For Dhinakaran, the move represents a significant political churn. Once a sharp critic of AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami, he has now sought to recast their earlier clashes as mere disagreements between allies, saying the “larger objective” of dislodging the DMK required putting past differences behind them.

Last year, Dhinakaran announced his party's exit from the NDA in Tamil Nadu, accusing the AIADMK of betrayal and arrogance. He had also said that Union Minister Amit Shah's attempts at mediation had failed.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, AMMK allied with the BJP-led NDA in Tamil Nadu, contested Theni and Tiruchirappalli seats, securing a solid 3,93,415 votes overall.

How will his entry boost NDA?

Dhinakaran rose to prominence during Jayalalithaa’s tenure as a key behind-the-scenes strategist. Much of his clout flowed from his close family ties to VK Sasikala, the late Chief Minister’s most trusted confidante.

Dhinakaran’s party commands pockets of influence in southern Tamil Nadu, particularly among the Thevar/Mukkulathor communities. It is an umbrella term used to refer to Kallars, Maravars and Agamudaiyar) voters. Though they are only 6 to 8 per cent of the total electorate in Tamil Nadu, the community is politically agile and present across parties.

By bringing him into the NDA, the alliance reduces the risk of anti-DMK votes being split among multiple AIADMK offshoots. Currently, the BJP has limited grassroots presence in several southern districts of the state.

In the 2021 Tamil Nadu Assembly election, Dhinakaran is said to have emerged as a key disruptor for the AIADMK despite his party failing to win a single seat. In 2021, AMMK bagged 2.35 percent vote share.

In a state where the BJP has never won on its own, Dhinakaran’s party is expected to provide a boost in areas where the NDA has struggled to gain traction.