Alliance churn in Tamil Nadu as DMK-Congress talks stall, TVK plots own course

The MK Stalin-led DMK is currently in seat-sharing talks with the Congress for the Tamil Nadu elections. (File: PTI)

• DMK and Congress in complex seat-sharing talks ahead of 2026 TN polls
• Actor Vijay's TVK emerges as a major new player, targeting youth and alliances
• AIADMK renews NDA ties but faces internal strains and opposition fragmentation

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Alliance arithmetic and seat-sharing talks are rapidly becoming the defining features as the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections approach. While the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led front works to finalise its seat distribution with partners, including the Congress, actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) and splinter groups from the rival AIADMK are forcing the 'big brothers' to recalibrate ahead of polls expected in April-May this year.

The DMK and Congress remain aligned as the primary coalition that dates back to 2004, with only occasional breaks. While Congress leaders have reaffirmed the partnership, with AICC in-charge Girish Chodankar calling the DMK its "most trusted ally" and dismissing speculations of a split, seat-sharing talks have been ridden with complexities that have stalled the finalisation of an agreement.

The DMK has proposed allotting 32 seats to the Congress, while the grand old party has set an internal target of 38-40 seats along with cabinet berths, if the alliance comes to power. This push reportedly comes amid pressure from local Congress units demanding key constituencies like Trichy East, which they believe could strategically bolster their presence.

The DMK, on its part, has been cautious about rushing into finalising deals as it prioritises the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voter lists and negotiates broader coalition arrangements that could see the inclusion of parties like the PMK and DMDK before it formalises numbers with the Congress.

A major new variable in Tamil Nadu's political landscape is the TVK, launched in 2024 by Tamil cinema superstar Vijay, which has rapidly transitioned from an ideological movement to a serious electoral contender by tapping into the youth and grassroots expansion ahead of the polls.

While initially ruling out tie-ups with both the DMK and the BJP-led NDA, the party recently indicated it is open to alliances on the clear condition that Vijay must be projected as the chief ministerial candidate.

TVK has termed the DMK as its principal political opponent and the BJP as its ideological adversary, while describing the Congress as a "natural ally" on secular and anti-communal issues. Yet, internal hurdles within the Congress have stalled formal talks.

On the other hand, DMK's traditional rival AIADMK has also had a fraught alliance journey. After ditching the BJP-led NDA ahead of the 2024 general election, the party announced a renewed NDA partnership for the 2026 Assembly polls in April 2025.

Under its leader Edappadi K Palaniswami, the AIADMK is projecting a fully independent campaign despite Union Home Minister Amit Shah's repeated assertions of an "NDA victory" in the state. Other than the friction between the AIADMK and BJP, the alliance also faces organisational strains, especially in view of its repeated electoral setbacks, including a clean sweep loss in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

Besides, expelled AIADMK leader O Panneerselvam (OPS) and TTV Dhinakaran's AMMK are also exploring a tactical understanding with TVK, seeking significant seat allocations. The fragmentation of the anti-DMK space as smaller groups hedge between aligning with TVK or the DMK-led coalition may further complicate matters for the NDA.

Political analysts note that Tamil Nadu's 2026 poll will likely be shaped as a multi-cornered contest rather than a direct two-way battle. With TVK potentially pulling anti-incumbency votes and carving out space from both historical blocs, traditional vote banks may realign across the state, particularly among youth and urban voters where Vijay's appeal has been most visible.

While TVK's influence among younger demographics is pronounced, senior leaders in the MDMK suggest that it is unlikely to directly fracture the DMK alliance's support, at least in terms of core vote shares. Nevertheless, a split in opposition votes could indirectly bolster the DMK-led front if AIADMK and other challengers are unable to consolidate effectively.