Climate change: How a double whammy of rising temperatures and scanty rainfall has hit Kashmir's saffron industry

A saffron field in Pampore, near Srinagar. (Photo by Umar Ganie)

Scanty rainfall and rising temperatures have hit Kashmir’s saffron industry hard in the past decade .

Once famous for producing saffron—the king of spices—Kashmir's area under saffron cultivation and yield are both shrinking, partly because of unpredictable and extreme weather events.

Experts say that the weather in the Valley has become erratic due to climate change. Rainfall is either scanty or its distribution is irregular, affecting the critical stage of flowering. Shrinking glaciers across the Himalayas have also cut water flows to the foothills downstream. And warming temperatures have further depleted water from thirsty saffron fields.

Sameer Ahmad, a saffron grower in Lethpora, Pampore, told Moneycontrol that lack of timely and adequate rainfall has rendered acres of his land barren. Additionally, he said, yields from the area that is still under saffron cultivation are lower than before.

“The saffron crop we get in our fields these days, (the kind of money it brings in) would be spent on buying toys some 20 years before. Saffron cultivation was a thriving experience during my childhood, but not any more. People in my village have lost interest in saffron and they are now looking to produce apples,” he said.

Dwindling production due to scanty rainfall has forced some farmers to quit saffron farming. In Kashmir’s saffron town Pampore, the saffron crop, as per government data, was being cultivated on 5707 hectares in 1996, which had shrunk to around 3500 hectares as of 2017. The government in 2010-11 introduced the National Saffron Mission to help saffron farmers irrigate their fields.

Dwindling interest

Unseasonal snowfall, heavy or scanty rainfall, hailstorms have in the past caused economic losses to farmers. In 2014 particularly, floods caused great damage to crops in the region.

A senior official at the directorate of agriculture, Kashmir, told Moneycontrol that saffron production in Kashmir is either falling or stagnant despite schemes to help with irrigation.

From 15.97 MT recorded in 1997, saffron production in Kashmir fell to 0.12 MT in 2017.

Senior scientist at Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology (SKUAST), Kashmir, Dr Amjad M. Hussaini argued that climate change is not the sole reason for the dwindling production of saffron.

Hussain pointed to the lack of interest among growers as the main reason for the decline.

“Dry conditions due to climate change have certainly resulted in low yields in the past two decades, but the lack of interest in saffron farming has potentially hit the future of a cash crop that has brought wealth to the region for 2,500 years,” said Hussaini.

Climate factors

Vice-Chancellor, Islamic University of Science and Technology (IUST), Dr Shakil Ramshoo told Moneycontrol that climate change is the biggest factor for the dwindling production of agriculture and horticulture sector.

Ramshoo, who is also an earth science expert, said there is ample evidence that climate change has hit Kashmir badly.

“According to different data and evidence, climate change has been impacting Kashmir mostly during autumn. For instance, during the last 20 years, due to significant depletion of rains during autumn season, the productivity of saffron has significantly reduced,” Ramshoo explained.

Ramshoo suggested that agriculture scientists in collaboration with farmers should concentrate on producing new varieties of saffron which are climate-resilient.

Melting glaciers

Ramshoo said research has shown that climate change has impacted the cryosphere, which in turn has affected streamflow, food production and even tourism in Kashmir.

Analysis of the data showed that the areal extent of glaciers has receded significantly from 1980-2013.

The total glaciated area of the nine benchmark glaciers in 1980 was 29.01 km which reduced to 27.77 km in 1992, 26.26 km in 2001, 24.89 km in 2010 and 23.81 km in the year 2013.

Therefore, the area has witnessed a deglaciation of about 5.20 km or 17.92 percent over just 33 years. “During the recent decades, precipitation associated with both the 590 monsoon and western disturbances has been decreasing significantly,” he said.

The advocacy group ActionAid’s 2007 report on climate change in Kashmir showed that average temperature in the region was 1.45 degrees Celsius higher than in corresponding periods in previous years.

Director, meteorological department of J&K and Ladakh, Sonam Lotus, told Moneycontrol that climate change is a reality in J&K and Ladakh, with clear indication of decreased snow-line, frequent erratic weather patterns in the form of sudden rain or snow.

“Our saffron fields have suffered because today we are living in a warmer environment than what it was 40-50 years back. Through numerous mitigation strategies, the government has strengthened the weather early warning system in the form of addition of more observational networks, refinement and improvement in numerical weather models which has significantly improved our forecasting skills,” Lotus said.

He, however, added that variations in precipitation are not new and have happened in the past as well. “Our data doesn't show any significant decrease in precipitation. Extreme weather in the form of occasional drought, unseasonal rain or snow has increased but the good thing is that our forecasting skills have definitely helped the government and the farmers,” Lotus said.

Nadeem Qadri, an environmental lawyer, told Moneycontrol: “Climate change is real and posing a serious threat to our agrarian economies. Our cash crop saffron is also facing the brunt of climate change. The erratic snowfall and rainfall from the past couple of years is changing the crop behaviour leading to drastic decrease in production.

Qadri added that early spring is also an indicator of climate change in Kashmir.