When Salman clashes with John: In COVID times what same-day releases will mean for box office

Salman Khan’s Radhe is among the several action films expected to do bring the audience back to cinema halls.

Cinema halls and multiplexes are buzzing again with a packed calendar of new releases in 2021 after last year’s dry spell.

But there’s a concern: Same-day release of movies, which had wiped out up to 20% of sales even before the Coronavirus disrupted business.

This year, losses from the simultaneous release of movies can shrink significantly if the situation improves further, but with the pandemic resurging in Maharashtra, there are fears of bigger losses.

The first major box-office clash will be between Salman Khan's Radhe and John Abraham's Satyameva Jayate 2 which are scheduled to release on the Eid holiday on May 13.

There are other clashes in the offing. These include Akshay Kumar's Bell Bottom and Fast and Furious 9 on May 28, Ranveer Singh's 83 and The Conjuring on June 4, Alia Bhatt's Gangubai Kathiawadi and Prabhas-starrer Radhe Shyam on July 30, S S Rajamouli's RRR and Ajay Devgn's Maidaan on October 13 and Akshay Kumar's Prithviraj and Shahid Kapoor's Jersey.

Same-day releases have hit the industry even in pre-COVID days.

"Pre-COVID if a solo film would do Rs 220-230 crore (at the box office), due to the clash the number would go down to Rs 170 crore. The loss was almost 15-20 percent when films released on the same day," noted Karan Taurani, Vice-President, Elara Capital.

But what will clashes mean in COVID times?

According to Taurani, two things can happen. "If the (COVID) situation improves, this number (15-20 percent decrease in box office collections) could narrow down to four to five percent loss or there could be no loss."

However, if the situation worsens, the 20 percent loss during the pre-COVID period could become 40 percent loss, he said.

Currently, number of coronavirus cases are increasing in Maharashtra, which contributes 26 percent to overall box office business of Hindi films.

Taurani said that while people were going to theatres, the rise in the number of COVID cases impact sentiment especially for the multiplex business that has a large proportion of family viewing audience.

Shailesh Kapoor, CEO of Ormax Media, a media consultancy, also thinks clashes are always a sub-optimal scenario for the films. And this year, when many movie-goers will be coming back to theatres after more than a year's gap, clash scenarios could have been avoided, he said.

But Taurani thinks otherwise.

"Clashes could not have been avoided as there is lot of supply of content. Shootings started from August-September but cinemas started from November-December (While central government allowed theatres to reopen from October 15, many states gave a go ahead to theatres to reopen only in November). A lot of new content has not come even now. So, there is big backlog of content."

He said only 25 to 30 films have gone on over the top (OTT) platforms. "Even films like Mumbai Saga (starring John Abraham), they (producers) have cancelled OTT (release) plan and are coming to cinema. Plus, if a movie is delayed, cost keeps on increasing. While makers of Sooryavanshi and 83 were waiting since last year, one cannot expect all films to wait."

Kapoor pointed out another interesting aspect on clashes in COVID times.

"Audience are expected to come in a staggered way because of COVID, instead of all coming on the first weekend or the first week. For example, if the first weekend contributed about 40 to 45 percent collections in 2019, it may contribute about 30 to 35 percent this year. Hence, clashing films may have more legroom than they had earlier. The film that's stronger on content can thus go on to grow over time, but the weaker film will struggle."

Film producer and trade business analyst, Girish Johar concurs. He said that while "clashes are part of our appetite, it can backfire if the content of a film is weak and the drop in collections could be faster. Also, audience will shift to another better option that is available."

Johar said clashes during holidays may not be a big concern. "Holiday period is large enough to hold two films. In the past, we have seen that big holidays can manage couple of releases on the same day. If both films are good both will run."

Be it pre-COVID days in the current times, when it comes to choosing a release date, every producer wants the holiday period. So, a clash between Radhe and Satyameva Jayate 2 on a holiday period like Eid could not have been avoided, said experts.

But what about the single screens that have permanently shut shop. It is estimated that more than 1,000 single screens have shut down permanently because of the pandemic.

So, will dwindling screen count impact business of movies especially those that are releasing on the same day?

Taurani said that it will not have a big impact on film clashes happening this year.

"Single screens in north and west had low contribution around 20 percent to overall box office collections (pre-COVID). There are around 6,500 single screens out of which around 4,500 single screens are in south belt. So, if 1,000 single screens have shut, around 700 to 800 screens are from north and west and rest in south. The overall impact of single screens shutting down in north and west is not more than five percent."

He said shutting down of a single screen would send customers to a multiplex. “Then there is a positive impact of 10 to 20 percent because in that case average ticket price (ATP) is four times as compared to single screens.”