Venezuelan situation to have little impact on Indian refiners, crude imports have remained nil since May

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Indian refiners have not purchased Venezuelan crude oil since May 2025, making them largely insulated from any near-term volatility amid the ongoing developments in the South American country.

According to data from oil and gas industry data analytics firm Kpler, Indian refiners’ imports peaked at about 130 kb/d (130,000 barrels per day) in April 2024, accounting for roughly 20 percent of Venezuela’s total crude exports that month.

 Thereafter, volumes  turned volatile and trended lower, slipping to around 64 kb/d in December 2024, and hovering in the 60–70 kb/d range between January and April 2025, with India’s share falling to 8–9 percent.

By May 2025, imports dropped to zero, marking a complete halt in Indian buying even as Venezuela continued exporting crude to other destinations, chiefly China and the US.

India was among the largest buyers of Venezuelan heavy crude oil once, importing over 4,00,000 barrels per day at peak levels. However, sweeping US sanctions and mounting compliance risks forced Indian refiners to halt purchases in 2020. It resumed purchases in December 2023,  after the US, in October, temporarily lifted sanctions, banning oil exports.

The South American nation's sour, heavy crude is inexpensive for India, which has been long reliant on the Middle East, and, most recently, Russia for its crude requirements.

On January 3, the US abducted Venezuela's  President Nicolás Maduro and flew him out to face charges, such as Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy, Cocaine Importation Conspiracy, among others, in a US court.  US President Donald Trump announced that US oil companies will invest an unspecified amount to revive the oil infrastructure in the South American nation and increase its oil output, enabling higher crude flows to the US and other markets.

Analysts expect higher oil output from Venezuela in future, provided there is significant investment by  oil companies. Increased oil production could be a positive for Indian refiners, which could benefit from the import of heavier Venezuelan barrels, which are priced at a discount to Brent and enables companies to generate higher GRMs (Gross Refining Margins), according to Choice Securities.