Trump to make a call on non-immigrant visas: A look at visas that will be impacted

US President Donald Trump has confirmed that a new executive order that bans non-immigrant visas such as H-1B can be expected in the next couple of days.

In an interview with Fox News Channel , he said, “We're going to be announcing something tomorrow or the next day on the visas.”

This comes at the back of growing unemployment in the US that now stands close to 40 million. The ban is in a bid to improve job prospects of the Americans, he said.

This means that we can expect an order on Sunday or Monday, at the latest. Immigration experts have been expecting this since May, when the 30 day review period for the non-immigration visas such as H-1B came to an end on May 22.

On April 22, Trump signed an executive order banning immigration to the US for 60 days, which ends on June 22. In the order he explained that non-immigrant visas such as H-1B would be reviewed and a new order on the same could be expected.

So that is finally here, after much speculation about when it is expected by media and immigration experts.

Who will be impacted?

The visas that would be the most impacted include skilled non-immigrant visa such as H-1B and L-1 and temporary worker visa for unskilled workers H-2B. Other visas that could be affected are J-1 (research scholars) and Optional Training Programme, where fresh graduates can seek employment in the US for up to three years under their student visa.

What is the degree of the impact?

H-1B/L-1

The impact for each of these visa could be of varying degrees, with H-1B and L-1 seeing the highest impact. There are about 4 lakh H-1B visa holders and about one lakh L-1 visa holders in the US from India.

Indians are the biggest beneficiaries for both the visas that saw a huge spike in denials and requests for denials since the Trump administration took over in 2017. According to a research report by the US-based immigration think tank CATO.org, between 2016 and 2019, rejection share of L-1 increased from 25 percent to 34 percent. In case of H-1B, approvals for top Indian IT firms went down from 23,000 in FY13 to 5,200 in FY19, according to a research report.

With this ban, these two visa holders are most likely to be affected.

There are hundreds of people in India who are waiting for their visa to be stamped and thousands in the US, who were recently laid off due to COVID-19 and are actively seeking employment within the 60 day time frame mandated by the federal government.

Sheela Murthy, founder, Murthy Law Firm, had earlier pointed out that about 20 percent of the employers are shying away from filing H-1B due to uncertainties around the executive order. This could increase further and force the unemployed visa workers to return home.

If the ban comes into effect immediately, those who are applying for fresh visas from India will suffer. This includes renewals and fresh visas. Significant number of H-1B workers had come to India between February and March due to family emergency and had their visa appointments cancelled as the US consulates were shut due to lockdown. There are over 1000 such workers in India. All of these people will be affected.

This would also impact the valid H-1B/L-1visa holders in India, whose travel dates were postponed due to COVID-19. These workers might not be able to join in the next couple of months, given that the order could ban the entry into the US till October.

Some pointed out that the new executive order could have provisions for increase in H-1B visa fees. That again would impact the IT firms.

However, a report by institutional equities firm Emkay pointed out this is unlikely to impact H-1B renewals and H-1B and L-1 visa transfers in the US.

OPT

There are about two lakh Indian studying in the US and majority of these students opt for OPT programme after their graduation. Every year the country sees close to 40,000 Indians going to the US for pursuing education, mostly for higher education.

OPT programme gives them a chance to work for American firms, which could be later converted to H-1B visa sponsored by the company. According to a report by Breitbart, close to 70,000 Indian graduates got work permits for OPT jobs in 2018.

Without OPT, studying in the US might be not attractive as they have to spend close to Rs 40-50 lakh for their education.

Others

Other visas such as H-2 and J-1 are not as significant as the H-1B, L-1 or OPT. For FY19, only two visas were issued for Indians on H-2B, a temporary non-agriculture visa for unskilled workers. For J-1, which is reserved for research scholars, professors and exchange visitors, close to 10,000 visas were issued, including fresh and continuing visas.