Sell USDINR; target of : 81.40 : ICICI Direct

ICICI Direct, The US dollar gained a bit to settle above the 102.30 mark on Tuesday ahead of BoJ’s monetary policy.

January 18, 2023 / 09:48 IST

Govt could use the additional headroom available from subsidy savings on ramping up capex in Budget 2023.

ICICI Direct's currency report on USDINR

The US dollar gained a bit to settle above the 102.30 mark on Tuesday ahead of BoJ’s monetary policy. The expectation of a bigger-sized rate hike from the US has vanished after last week’s softer inflation number, which has restricted the dollar from breaching 102.70 level. The major trend is weak as the probability of 25 bps hike in the next policy has remained above 94.0% • Rupee future maturing on January 27 depreciated by 0.23% to settle at 81.83 on Tuesday amid higher crude oil prices and recovery in the dollar index • The rupee is expected to appreciate amid softness in the dollar ahead of expectation of weaker retail sales numbers. Further, US PPI is expected to decline towards -0.1%. The softness in the US PPI would diminish the bets of aggressive rate hike by Fed. US$INR is likely to face key resistance of 50 day EMA at 82 and slide towards the initial supports at 81.40 and 81.20.

Intra-day strategy

USDINR Jan futures contract (NSE)
Sell USDINR in the range of 81.78-81.80
Target: 81.40	Stoploss: 82.00
Support: 81.40/81.20	Resistance: 81.85/82.00

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