Global brokerages foresee up to 25% upside in Concor after a cut in railway land licensing fee

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26 Aug, 2025 12:21

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Container Corporation of India (Concor) share price was trading higher in the afternoon trade on September 8 as global brokerages offered a positive outlook on the stock, a day after the government lowered the railway land licensing fee.

The cabinet on September 7 approved the policy for long-term leasing of Indian Railways' land and cut the licence fees from 6 percent to 1.5 percent. The lease period has also been increased from five years to 35 years.

Concor, which is owned by the railway ministry, is engaged in the transportation and handling of containers. It also operates logistics facilities including dry ports.

Global research firm Nomura has upgraded the stock to “buy” and raised the target to Rs 918 a share, an upside of over 25 percent from the current market price.

"The rating upgrade was on the land licensing fee (LLF) policy formalisation, however, final LLF value is still uncertain but unlikely to rise in the near term. Policy formalisation should lead to incorporation of acquisition synergies," the brokerage firm said.

"We keep estimates unchanged as precise LLF quantum is difficult to determine currently," it added.

The cabinet's approval for the much-awaited amendment to the railway land policy would ease the strategic divestment process of Concor and make it more attractive to private investors, experts have said.

The development is in line with NITI Aayog's recommendation to keep the railway land leasing fee for containers below 3 percent.

According to Citi, LLF decision is a key milestone on the path of the company's privatisation. LLF outgo will depend on policy details, competitive bids and associated timelines. Over the medium term, more progress on privatisation would be the key, it said.

"Company remains an attractive asset. Scale and asset base makes it attractive for potential bidders during privatisation while the firm will be a major beneficiary of full completion of the dedicated freight corridor," it added.

Jefferies, too, has a “buy” rating on Concor with the target at Rs 850 a share. The brokerage firm is of the view that the land licensing fee policy is a key step in its privatisation process. “Our estimates factor Rs 7,500 crore cash outflow for 35-year land lease for the company at 6 percent LLF rate,” it said.

"Rate revision to 1.5 percent could add 7-8 percent to our target of Rs 850 and 2-10 percent to FY24-25 EPS estimates."

The brokerage house said LLF policy would give bidders clarity on its leased land rates. With general elections in H1CY24, the policy should come out before FY23 end. Volume growth should drive upside for the company over the next 6-12 months, it added.

Domestic brokerage house Kotak Institutional Equities took an opposite view and downgraded the stock to "reduce" from "add", saying that the revised policy is negative.

At 12.23 pm, the stock was trading 0.61 percent higher on the National Stock Exchange at Rs 731.

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