Anand Rathi's research report on MOIL
Despite MOIL reporting its highest quarterly production of 0.502m tonnes (up 6.8% y/y) in Q1, sales were down 21.4% y/y to 0.356m tonnes. We believe, when Q1 crude steel production rose 10.4% y/y (40.3m tonnes), the early monsoon in May’25 cut MOIL’s offtake. We believe this to be temporary and, considering the company’s strength, we expect the volume momentum of 2.1/2.5/2.7m tonnes to continue in FY26/FY27/FY28. The company has raised Q1 exploratory core drilling to 34.9km (16.2% y/y). The pace of core drilling is directly proportionate to R&R added, which would provide a road-map to a volume ramp-up. Global manganese-ore prices have risen in recent weeks. Global miners hiked Aug-Sep’25 delivery prices, and domestic miners are expected to follow suit in coming weeks, which to some extent will offset the May-Jun’25 -price reduction.
Outlook
In line with this price reduction (last two months) and a miss to Q1 estimates, we trim our FY26e/27e EBITDA 20.2/7.8%. We roll forward our estimates to FY28 and assign a 6.5x EV/EBITDA multiple to derive a TP of Rs425.
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