Axis Securities report on Coal India
CIL posted a decent set of numbers. Revenue (up 3% YoY, down 6% QoQ) beat our estimate by 2% led by higher ASP (down 4%/6% YoY/QoQ) which stood ahead of our estimate by 2%. EBITDA (down 14%YoY, up 52% QoQ) beat our estimates by 16%, mainly on account of lower RM costs, which are partially offset by higher-than-expected employee and contractual expenses. In Q4FY23, CIL took provision towards employee expenses of Rs 5,870 Cr. Attrib. PAT stood at Rs 7,971 Cr, down 10% YoY (up 44% QoQ), beating our estimate led by higher other income and lower D&A expenses.
Outlook
We continue to value the stock at 4.0x 1-year forward EV/EBITDA multiple on FY25E Adj. EBITDA. We arrive at our target price of Rs 265/share (from Rs 275/share), implying an upside of 15% from the CMP.
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