Motilal Oswal's research report on ABB India
ABB’s 4QCY25 reported PAT came ahead of our estimates. The positive surprise was 52% YoY growth in order inflows, with 27% YoY growth in base inflows and large order inflows. With the traction seen in emerging areas like renewables, data centers and electronics, the company expects to maintain a similar run rate in inflows from these industries. EBITDA margin, adjusted for effects of labor code and forex fluctuation, stood in line with our estimates. We expect that the impact of QCO-related cost can be seen for just few more quarters, and margins can improve from there on. In the last one year, two reasons that resulted in de-rating of the stock were weak margins-led earnings cuts and muted order inflows. We believe that the earnings cut cycle seems to be over for ABB and order inflows have started reviving. From hereon, a further re-rating in the valuation would be driven by the continuity of strong order inflows and margin improvement going forward.
Outlook
We raise our estimates by 9% each for CY26/27 to bake in better margins and roll forward our valuation to Mar’28 estimates. We arrive at a revised TP of INR6,600 based on DCF, implying 55x P/E on Mar’28 estimates.
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