'Not much': Lula pushes India-Brazil beyond $20 billion trade goal, eyes $30 billion by 2030

Leaders agree on $20 billion trade target, sign critical minerals pact and push for ambitious digital and technology partnership.

• India and Brazil aim for $20B trade in five years
• Both nations sign pact on cooperation in critical minerals
• Leaders aim for $30 billion trade by 2030 with deeper ties

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India and Brazil have set a bilateral trade target of $20 billion over the next five years and signed a cooperation pact on critical minerals, as both governments signal a sharper economic and strategic alignment amid a shifting global order.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva went further, saying he would “not be surprised” if trade reaches $30 billion by 2030, a clear indication that both sides see the current $15 billion figure as only a starting point.

“In 2006, our bilateral trade was around $200 million. A few years back it was $2.4 billion, which rose to $15 billion last year. This is not much. The potential of growth is huge,” Lula said at the India-Brazil Business Forum.

He confirmed that he and Prime Minister Narendra Modi had committed to reaching $20 billion in the next few years, but stressed that even that number “is not much.” By 2030, Lula said, a $30 billion trade relationship would be achievable if both sides adopt a more ambitious framework.

India and Brazil agreed to develop a broader trade architecture designed to benefit businesses in both countries, with an emphasis on long-term partnerships rather than transactional exchanges.

Following wide-ranging talks, the two sides signed a pact on cooperation in critical minerals, a sector increasingly central to global supply chains, clean energy transitions and strategic autonomy.

Brazil signalled it wants to attract investments, including from India, into its critical minerals sector. Lula also called for technology transfer and deeper industrial presence in India, saying Brazil seeks to “consolidate our presence” through joint ventures and shared capabilities.

The minerals agreement fits into a broader push by both governments to reduce vulnerabilities in global supply chains.

Lula highlighted that India and Brazil are leaders in the creation of Digital Public Infrastructure, positioning the partnership as one that extends beyond commodities trade into digital and technology ecosystems.

The visit, which runs from February 18 and includes participation in the India AI Impact Summit, places artificial intelligence and digital governance at the centre of bilateral discussions.

Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal described the visit as a “defining moment” in ties between two of the world’s largest democracies. Brazil, he said, has long been a strong voice of the Global South.

Goyal underscored India’s expanding global trade footprint, noting that India now enjoys preferential access to nearly two-thirds of global trade through nine free trade agreements.

Active negotiations are underway with several partners. India has finalised terms of reference with Israel and the Gulf Cooperation Council, launched discussions with Canada and hopes to formally begin FTA talks with Ottawa soon.

“These FTAs play an important role in building the right climate for India’s industry to grow domestically and internationally,” Goyal said.

He added that India is on track to surpass Germany within two years to become the world’s third-largest economy, inviting Brazilian firms to partner in agriculture, aerospace, automotive manufacturing and digital technologies.

Lula arrived with what he described as the largest business delegation of any of his foreign visits, calling it evidence of Brazil’s commitment to India.

“We wish to not be developed countries, but become developed countries,” he said, framing the partnership as part of a broader development ambition for emerging economies.