Neutral NTPC; target of Rs 393: Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal recommended Neutral rating on NTPC with a target price of Rs 393 in its research report dated January 31, 2026.

Broker Research

February 02, 2026 / 15:11 IST

Neutral

Motilal Oswal's research report on NTPC

Standalone reported PAT in 3Q was in line with our estimates, favored by lower than-expected finance costs and higher-than-expected other income. However, Adj. PAT came in 6% below our estimates. EBITDA missed our estimates mainly due to weak power demand leading to soft generation trends. Key factors we liked about the result: 1) Thermal capacity target for FY26 has been achieved, while targets for FY27 and FY28 are maintained, 2) strong recovery in power demand in Dec’25 and Jan’26 should support strong PLFs in 4QFY26, 3) NGEL curtailment is expected to reduce to nearly zero following the commissioning of the Narela Khetri line, and 4) the company has declared a total interim dividend of INR5.5/share in FY26.

Outlook

Our TP of INR393 for NTPC is based on: Value of INR213 for the standalone, coal, and other businesses at Dec’27E P/B of 2x. Value of INR21 for other subsidiaries and INR45 for JV/associates at Dec’27E P/B of 2x. The stake in NGEL is valued at a 25% discount to the current market price.

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