Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50, Bank Nifty rebound after Friday's sharp sell-off?

Nifty Trading Plan for February 16

• Bearish trend may continue if Nifty decisively breaks Friday's low
• Holding above Friday's low can increase possibility of index facing resistance at 25,500–25,700
• Bank Nifty expected to consolidate, with 60,000–59,950 acting as support

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The Nifty 50 fell below all key moving averages (except the 200 DEMA) in a single session after a gap-down opening, with momentum indicators signalling caution. Hence, if the bearish trend continues and the index decisively breaks Friday's low, a fall toward the 200 DMA (25,300) and the 200 EMA (25,200) cannot be ruled out. However, holding above the said low can increase the possibility of the index facing resistance at 25,500–25,700. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty is expected to consolidate, with 60,000–59,950 acting as support; below this, 59,700 is the crucial level to watch. On the upside, 60,400–60,600 can act as possible resistance, according to experts.

On February 13, the Nifty 50 plunged 336 points (1.3 percent) to 25,471, while the Bank Nifty slipped 553 points (0.91 percent) to 60,187. Market breadth was dominated by bears, with about 2,272 declining shares against 637 advancing shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager - Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One

From a technical standpoint, the Nifty 50 has slipped below its key short-term EMAs, indicating a loss of immediate momentum, and has approached its 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent upswing (25,456), a pivotal juncture in setting the market trend. The prevailing price structure suggests signs of distribution following the prior impulsive rally, reflecting consolidation rather than an outright trend reversal.

On the momentum front, the 14-day RSI has registered a negative crossover, pointing to weakening strength in the near term. Meanwhile, although the MACD remains in positive territory, the contracting histogram signals moderation in bullish momentum. Collectively, these indicators suggest the market is undergoing a healthy price and time correction after an extended upward move, with broader trend dynamics remaining intact unless key support levels are decisively breached.

From a levels perspective, immediate resistance is placed at 25,700–25,750 (bearish gap), followed by 25,900–26,000, where supply has consistently emerged. On the downside, 25,450–25,400 remains the pivotal juncture; a decisive break below this level could accelerate weakness toward the 25,250–25,200 zone, which aligns with a stronger support cluster and the 61.80% retracement zone.

Key Resistance: 25,700, 25,900

Key Support: 25,400, 25,250

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips around 25,400, with a stop-loss of 25,250, and book profits near 25,700–25,750.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

Nifty saw a weekly loss of 223 points and formed a bearish candle on the weekly charts but stayed within the prior week’s high–low range, indicating a lack of clear directional bias. The first week of February’s range (26,341–24,679) remains the key reference zone for the next decisive move.

On the daily chart, a bearish island reversal has developed, which is typically a negative signal. However, a decisive close above 25,800 would invalidate this pattern and open the path toward 26,000–26,350. On the downside, 25,500–25,450 is a critical support zone, aligning with the 20-day SMA, placed at 25,474, and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the February 2026 rally (25,455). A break below this level could accelerate the decline toward 25,250–25,000.

The weekly RSI is slightly below its reference line, while Stochastics have turned positive, indicating a bullish bias if 25,800 is decisively breached.

Key Resistance: 25,550, 25,700

Key Support: 25,400, 25,250

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures around 25,550 with a stop-loss of 25,650, targeting 25,350.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

Nifty ended the week with a bearish candle that opened near the high and closed near the low. However, the price action formed an inside bar on the weekly timeframe, which signals consolidation rather than a fresh breakdown. The index is holding the 10- to 20-week moving average spread, keeping the broader uptrend intact.

The close near the midpoint of the previous week suggests bulls have not lost control. The recent weakness appears more like profit booking within an ongoing uptrend. As long as bears fail to press the index decisively below 25,450, dips should be viewed as buying opportunities. A hold above this level can push Nifty toward 25,600 in the near term. A sustained move above 25,600 can extend the recovery toward 25,740.

The tone for the week ahead leans toward consolidation with a positive bias unless key supports give way.

Key Resistance: 25,600, 25,740

Key Support: 25,450, 25,280

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures above 25,530 with a stop-loss below 25,470 for a target of 25,740.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager - Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One

Bank Nifty had a largely muted week of trade, with prices remaining confined to a narrow range for most of the week. However, on the final day, sellers managed to gain the upper hand, triggering a decline that pushed the index close to its 20 EMA.

While the higher timeframe trend remains aligned to the upside, persistent selling in the broader markets now appears to be weighing on the rate-sensitive index as well. Going forward, there is limited clarity on the immediate trend, and we expect prices to continue trading sideways, albeit with a slight negative bias.

In terms of levels, the bullish gap in the 60,150–60,000 band acts as an immediate support zone, which also aligns with the 20 DEMA, followed by stronger support at the 59,500 level near the 50 EMA. The bullish gap at 58,600 remains another crucial support reference. On the flip side, immediate resistance is placed around the 60,500–60,800 band, followed by a stronger hurdle near last week’s highs in the 61,500–61,700 range.

Key Resistance: 60,800, 61,500

Key Support: 59,500, 58,600

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips around 59,500–59,600 for a potential target of 60,800, with a stop-loss of 58,800.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

Bank Nifty lacked decisive strength on either side and closed 66 points higher for the week, outperforming Nifty. On the weekly chart, the index formed a bearish candle, though it remained confined within the previous week’s high–low range, indicating consolidation despite relative outperformance.

Technically, a sustained move above 60,850 could trigger fresh buying momentum, pushing the index toward 61,370–61,800. Conversely, a break below 60,000 may invite selling pressure, dragging the index toward 59,650–59,350. For the week ahead, Bank Nifty is expected to trade within the 61,800–59,350 range with a mixed bias.

Momentum indicators remain supportive, with the weekly RSI and Stochastic oscillator rebounding from oversold territory and moving above their reference lines, signalling an improving positive bias.

Key Resistance: 60,400, 60,600

Key Support: 59,900, 59,750

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures around 60,400 with a stop-loss of 60,650, targeting 59,900–59,800.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

Bank Nifty closed the week with a bearish candle, but the structure is an inside bar, pointing more to consolidation than reversal. Importantly, the index is holding above the nine-week breakout level near 60,119, which keeps the broader structure intact. Only a decisive weekly close below 60,000 will confirm a breakdown and expose the index to 59,600.

On the flip side, any bullish evidence around the 60,100 zone can offer a fresh long opportunity. A stable base here can push the index back toward its all-time high, and a breakout can extend the move toward 62,000 and then 62,750. The weekly 10-, 20-, and 50-week moving averages are rising steadily and continue to act as a launchpad for higher prices. Dips toward the 10-week EMA near 59,375 are likely to attract buyers.

The week ahead favours consolidation with a positive undertone unless 60,000 gives way.

Key Resistance: 62,000, 62,750

Key Support: 60,000, 59,375

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures above 60,250 with a stop-loss below 60,000 for the 61,000–61,500 zone.