Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50, Bank Nifty manage to climb above Monday’s high?

Nifty Trading Plan for December 16

The Nifty 50 climbed back above short-term moving averages (10- and 20-day EMA), though it was slightly below the midline of the Bollinger Bands (20 SMA). The zone of 26,000–26,050, which aligns with Monday’s high and broadly with the 20 SMA, is crucial for a further upward journey toward 26,200–26,300. Until then, consolidation may continue, with immediate support at 25,900, followed by 25,700 as a crucial support. The Bank Nifty needs to give a sustainable close above 59,500 (near Monday’s high), which can open the door for 59,800–60,000. Trading below this level may keep the index in consolidation mode, with 59,000 acting as support, experts said.

On December 15, the Nifty 50 declined 20 points to 26,027, while the Bank Nifty rose 72 points to 59,462. Market breadth was slightly in favour of bulls, with 1,488 shares advancing compared to 1,363 declining shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities

Nifty has been consolidating within a broader range of 26,300–25,700, and within that, the short-term range is 25,700–26,000. There has been the highest cumulative Put open interest at the 26,000 strike, making this level critical in deciding further action in the index.

Above 26,000, there is room for the index to inch toward 26,300 and above, whereas below 26,000, it may slip back into the short-term range of 25,700–26,000.

Only a break below 25,700 would indicate a short-term trend reversal, wherein Nifty could head for a correction toward 25,300. Otherwise, once this consolidation is over, the breakout is likely to be on the upside.

The FII index position remains negative, having increased from approximately 87,000 contracts to 1.50 lakh contracts, along with selling in the equity cash segment, which is a concern. On the flip side, DIIs continue to be net buyers in the equity cash segment, cushioning the downside. Therefore, as long as 25,700 holds, the short-term bias remains positive for the index.

Key Resistance: 26,300

Key Support: 25,700

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures above 26,050, with a stop-loss of 25,950, targeting 26,200 and 26,300.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

Over the past two sessions, the Nifty has been trading within a narrow range of 25,900–26,050, indicating short-term consolidation. On the daily chart, the 20-day DEMA is providing strong support near the 25,900 level, which also coincides with the gap formed on December 12, reinforcing its significance.

Additionally, the daily RSI is placed above the 50 mark, suggesting underlying bullish momentum. Based on this technical setup, we expect the Nifty to maintain a positive bias and potentially resume its upward move in the coming sessions.

Key Resistance: 26,050, 26,150

Key Support: 25,900, 25,800

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures above 26,150, with a stop-loss of 26,000, targeting 26,400.

Shitij Gandhi, AVP - Equity Technical Research at SMC Global Securities

The Nifty 50 is trading below its immediate swing highs, signalling hesitation, yet it continues to find solid support in the 25,800–25,750 zone. On the upside, resistance is seen near 26,100, with a stronger supply barrier around 26,200.

Derivatives data also supports this range, with heavy Call open interest at 26,100–26,200 and strong Put writing at 26,000 and 25,900. While momentum remains subdued, the broader bias stays positive as long as Nifty holds above 25,750. A decisive move above 26,200 could revive bullish momentum and pave the way toward new swing highs.

Key Resistance: 26,200, 26,300

Key Support: 26,000, 25,800

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips near 26,000, with a stop-loss below 25,800, targeting 26,300.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities

So far, Bank Nifty has been an outperformer. The maximum Put open interest stands at 59,000, making it a critical level in the near term, while 60,000 has the highest Call open interest, acting as immediate resistance. Hence, the short-term range for the index is 59,000–60,000. Below this, 58,500 is the next support, which has proved to be a critical level.

Public sector banks have witnessed some profit booking and entered a consolidation phase. However, the overall data remains positive, and once consolidation is over, a breakout is likely on the upside.

Private sector banks have been non-performers over the past two months, due to which momentum in Bank Nifty has slowed. If private sector banks break out on the upside from their respective Call bases, an upward breakout is likely and momentum may return; otherwise, consolidation is expected to continue in the short term.

Key Resistance: 60,000

Key Support: 59,000, 58,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures near 59,000, with a stop-loss below 58,500, targeting 60,000.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

Over the past five sessions, Bank Nifty has been trading within a narrow range of 58,800–59,550, indicating short-term consolidation. On the daily chart, the 20–30-day DEMA is providing strong support near the 58,800 level. Additionally, the daily RSI is placed above the 50 mark, suggesting underlying bullish momentum.

Based on this technical setup, we expect Bank Nifty to maintain a positive bias and potentially resume its upward move in the coming sessions.

Key Resistance: 59,800, 60,000

Key Support: 59,100, 58,800

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures above 59,800, with a stop-loss of 59,400, targeting 60,500.

Shitij Gandhi, AVP - Equity Technical Research at SMC Global Securities

Bank Nifty spot is currently trading in a tight range, indicating near-term hesitancy. However, the index continues to remain supported above the critical demand zone of 59,000–58,500. A decisive move below this zone could bring bears to the forefront and further pressurise the index toward 58,000.

On the upside, immediate resistance is located around 59,600–59,800, followed by a stronger supply zone near 60,000. Secondary momentum indicators present a neutral bias, with the RSI hovering around the mid-range, suggesting a lack of directional momentum.

Overall, the technical structure remains constructive, and as long as Bank Nifty sustains above 58,500, the index is likely to consolidate with a mild positive bias. A sustained move above 59,600 could re-establish bullish momentum in the near term.

Key Resistance: 59,800, 60,000

Key Support: 59,200, 59,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips near 59,500, with a stop-loss below 59,200, targeting 60,000.