Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50 attempt to reclaim 25,650 again, Bank Nifty sustain above 10-day EMA?

NIfty Trading Plan for February 26

• Nifty expected to consolidate as long as trades below 25,650–25,700 zone
• Immediate support placed at 25,400–25,300 zone
• Decisive trade above 25,700 can raise possibility of a move toward 25,900–26,000

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The Nifty 50 could not sustain above key moving averages, with a consistent bearish bias in momentum indicators. Hence, the index is expected to consolidate as long as it trades below the 25,650–25,700 resistance zone, with immediate support at the 25,400–25,300 zone. However, a decisive trade above 25,700 can raise the possibility of a move toward 25,900–26,000. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty also seems to be losing bullish momentum. Hence, if the banking index convincingly breaks the 60,900–60,800 zone (10-day EMA and the previous day's low), 60,600–60,500 are the levels to watch. However, on the higher side, 61,300–61,500 is the hurdle zone, according to experts.

On February 25, the Nifty 50 climbed 58 points (0.23 percent) to 25,483, while the Bank Nifty fell 4 points to 61,043. Market breadth was slightly positive. A total of 1,503 shares saw buying interest, compared to 1,424 shares that were under pressure on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

The Nifty 50 witnessed sharp volatility in the early part of the month. However, during the latter half, price action narrowed, and the index largely oscillated within the 25,885–25,327 band. This prolonged sideways consolidation has resulted in both short- and long-term moving averages turning flat. Momentum indicators and oscillators also mirror this indecision, with the daily RSI moving sideways for the past 17 trading sessions in line with RSI range-shift behaviour.

Going ahead, the 200-day EMA zone of 25,250–25,200 remains the most critical immediate support. A sustained move below 25,200 could accelerate downside momentum and open the gates toward 24,900.

On the upside, the 25,750–25,800 region will act as a key resistance band; only a convincing breakout above this zone is likely to trigger meaningful upward momentum.

Key Resistance: 25,750, 25,800

Key Support: 25,250, 25,200, 24,900

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures above 25,700, with a stop-loss of 25,550, targeting 26,000.

Nilesh Jain, VP- Head of Technical and Derivative Research at Centrum Finverse

The Nifty index has been undergoing consolidation over the past few sessions, accompanied by selling pressure at higher levels. Immediate support is placed near the 200-DMA at 25,340, followed by the next support at 25,100. On the upside, the 100-DMA at 25,750 is acting as a strong resistance, and a decisive breakout above this level is essential for any sustained short-term upmove.

From the recent highs, Nifty has started forming a lower top–lower bottom structure, indicating the likelihood of further weakness in the near term. A breakdown below 25,340 would confirm the bearish setup and could lead to a follow-up move towards the 25,200 level.

On the indicators front, the MACD has generated a sell crossover, while the RSI is forming a lower top and lower bottom, highlighting underlying weakness despite the possibility of a brief pullback. The broader trend is expected to remain weak as long as the index stays below the 25,800 mark.

(Spot levels)

Key Resistance: 25,650, 25,800

Key Support: 25,330, 25,250

Strategy: Considering the overall technical setup, a Nifty 25,500 Put option can be bought above Rs 150, with an upside target of Rs 250 and a stop-loss placed at Rs 105.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Nifty remained volatile during the day, staying in line with the sentiment of the past few sessions. Overall, investors largely remained on the sidelines, as the index has spent the last two days trading broadly within the range of its 200-DMA (25,341) and 21-EMA (25,610).

Going forward, we expect the market to remain sideways until there is an improvement in investor confidence. Immediate support is placed at 25,300; as long as this level is maintained, the possibility of a rally remains intact. On the higher end, resistance is placed at 25,650–25,750.

Key Resistance: 25,650, 25,750

Key Support: 25,300

Strategy: Buy Nifty 25,400PE of the March 2 expiry above Rs 100, with a stop-loss of Rs 78, targeting Rs 150.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

The banking benchmark index, Bank Nifty, has been outperforming the frontline indices for the last couple of weeks. However, over the past seven trading sessions, it has been oscillating in a narrow range of the 61,678–60,560 zone. Currently, the index is trading near its all-time high level; hence, all moving average-based setups are suggesting a bullish trend. However, the momentum indicators are portraying a sideways picture for now.

Going ahead, the 61,700–61,800 zone is expected to act as a crucial resistance area for the Bank Nifty. A decisive and sustained breakout above 61,800 is likely to trigger a sharp upward rally, potentially accelerating bullish momentum in the index.

On the other hand, the 20-day EMA, currently placed in the 60,600–60,500 range, will serve as the immediate support zone. Any pullback towards this region is likely to attract buying interest; however, a breakdown below this level may open the door for a deeper corrective phase.

Key Resistance: 61,700, 61,800

Key Support: 60,600, 60,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures above 61,550, with a stop-loss of 61,100, targeting 62,300.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Bank Nifty remained volatile within a narrow range before closing flat on Wednesday. However, it has been sustaining above the critical near-term moving average (21-EMA), confirming the prevalence of a positive trend. The RSI is in a bearish crossover, indicating weakening price momentum.

On the lower end, support is placed at 60,900, below which the index may weaken. On the higher end, resistance is placed at 61,200; a decisive move above this level could pave the way for a rise towards 62,000.

Key Resistance: 61,200, 62,000

Key Support: 60,900, 60,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty 60,500PE of the March expiry at Rs 520, with a stop-loss of Rs 450, targeting Rs 630.

Nilesh Jain, VP- Head of Technical and Derivative Research at Centrum Finverse

Bank Nifty continues to show resilience by holding above its 21-DMA, placed at 60,430, which is acting as a strong support zone. The index is trading comfortably above all key moving averages, with declines being actively bought into. It has formed a higher high and higher low structure on the daily chart and has successfully closed above the 61,000 level, reinforcing the positive bias.

A sustained breakout above 61,500 could lead to short covering and open the door for further upside towards the 62,000 zone. Momentum indicators and weekly oscillators remain supportive, indicating underlying strength and maintaining a bullish bias. Overall, the structure appears stronger compared to the Nifty index, and this relative outperformance is likely to continue in the short term.

Key Resistance: 61,350, 61,500

Key Support: 60,800, 60,450