Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50, Bank Nifty extend upward journey for a fourth consecutive session?

Nifty Trading Plan for January 30

• Nifty, Bank Nifty to remain range-bound with a positive bias ahead of Union Budget
• Nifty 50 likely to trade in 25,200–25,500 range in near term
• Bank Nifty needs to decisively take out 60,000–60,100 zone for upward move toward record highs

Did our AI summary help?

The improving momentum indicators appear to be gradually aligning with the recent rally. Overall, the indices are expected to remain range-bound with a positive bias as they approach the Union Budget scheduled for February 1. The Nifty 50 is likely to trade in the 25,200–25,500 range in the near term, as a decisive break on either side of this range could provide firm directional cues. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty needs to decisively take out the 60,000–60,100 zone for an upward move toward record highs; however, immediate support is placed at the 59,600–59,500 zone, experts said.

On January 29, the Nifty 50 rose 76 points, or 0.30 percent, to 25,419, while the Bank Nifty jumped 359 points, or 0.6 percent, to 59,958. However, market breadth favoured bears, as a total of 1,717 shares witnessed selling pressure compared to 1,205 advancing shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivative Research Analyst at Samco Securities

The Nifty index staged a firm rebound from its critical support zone, sustaining above the 200-day moving average and gradually shifting the bias in favour of bulls. A strong base has formed in the 24,900–25,000 region, which continues to act as a key support and the bulls’ last line of defence.

The index has posted higher lows and closed above its previous session’s high for the past three consecutive days, highlighting persistent short covering and an improving price structure.

From a derivatives perspective, options data reflects a cautious yet improving undertone. Heavy Call writing at the 25,500 strike continues to cap immediate upside, while rising Put positions around the 25,300 zone indicate strengthening support.

The improvement in the Put–Call Ratio signals easing bearish pressure. A sustained move above 25,500 could accelerate short covering, while dips toward the 25,200–25,100 zone are likely to attract buying interest, keeping the buy-on-dips approach intact.

Key Resistance: 25,500, 25,680, 25,800

Key Support: 25,150, 25,050, 24,900

Strategy: Traders may consider a Bull Put Spread for the February 3 expiry by selling one lot of the 25,750 PE at Rs 370 and buying one lot of the 25,500 PE at Rs 210. This setup is designed to capitalise on potential upside momentum.

Stop-Loss: Hold this strategy strictly, with the maximum mark-to-market (MTM) loss capped at Rs 5,859 to ensure disciplined risk management.

Target: Hold the strategy with a maximum mark-to-market (MTM) profit target of Rs 10,390, while considering profit booking once MTM gains exceed Rs 6,000.

Jay Mehta, Technical Research at JM Financial Services

The Nifty, after a sharp sell-off from January 5–21, found strong support near 24,900, forming a short-term double-bottom reversal pattern with two successful tests. The price remains below short- and medium-term moving averages, but the latest session saw solid buying near the 200-day EMA, leading to a strong recovery.

The RSI also printed a double bottom in oversold territory. Notable volume buildup in Nifty futures supports a short-term bullish bias. The downside remains capped unless 24,900 breaks decisively. On the upside, overhead resistance persists at 25,470 and 25,700, while the bearish 20/50/100 EMA crossover warrants caution. A bearish move can be expected only on a decisive break below 24,900, which could open targets of 24,640 and 24,330.

Key Resistance: 25,470, 25,700, 25,940

Key Support: 25,160, 24,900

Strategy: Stay long with a stop-loss at 24,850; add on dips toward 25,160. Increase bullish bets on a breakout above 25,470, targeting 25,700 and 25,940.

Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking

A sharp intraday recovery led to the formation of a bullish hammer candlestick on the daily timeframe after testing the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), signalling a potential reversal and strengthening underlying support for the Nifty 50.

Immediate resistance is placed in the 25,550–25,600 zone, while crucial support is located around 25,250–25,300. The daily RSI stands at 43.07 and is trending upward, reflecting gradual improvement in momentum despite remaining in the neutral zone. Meanwhile, the volatility index, India VIX, declined 1.15 percent to 13.37, indicating easing market volatility and reduced near-term fear among participants.

Derivatives data shows heavy Call writing at the 25,500 strike and significant Put writing at the 25,300 strike, making this range a crucial near-term pivot.

Key Resistance: 25,550, 25,600

Key Support: 25,250, 25,300

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips near the 25,500 level for targets of 25,600–25,700, with a stop-loss of 25,250 on a closing basis.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Jay Mehta, Technical Research at JM Financial Services

The Bank Nifty found support near 58,100 around the 100-day EMA after recent selling, forming a short-term double bottom with a strong surge in futures volumes in recent sessions, indicating a short-term bullish bias. The index has remained range-bound over the past 50 sessions. Momentum and trend indicators suggest a bullish-to-sideways continuation.

A sustained close above all-time highs is required for the next leg higher. The past three sessions have shown strong buying intent with volume expansion, while the current high faces a resistance trendline. A break above 60,100 could open the path toward all-time highs and beyond. The index retains superior relative strength versus the Nifty, trading above short-, medium-, and long-term EMAs, all sloping upward.

Key Resistance: 60,100, 60,450, 61,000

Key Support: 59,400, 58,800, 58,100

Strategy: Accumulate long positions at CMP and on dips toward 59,400 with a stop-loss at 58,800; add more above 60,100 and 60,450, targeting 61,000 and above.

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivative Research Analyst at Samco Securities

The Bank Nifty continued to build on its consolidation breakout, reclaiming the 10-day EMA and signalling a revival in bullish momentum despite hovering near resistance.

The index has carved out a strong base in the 59,300–59,000 zone, aligned with key moving averages and now acting as a crucial support area. The formation of higher lows and repeated closes above the previous session’s high point to sustained buying interest and trend continuation.

Technically, the structure remains constructive, with momentum indicators supporting a positive bias. Options data adds strength to the outlook, with increased Put writing near 59,500 cushioning the downside, while heavy Call positions around 60,000 mark an immediate hurdle. A sustained move above 60,100 could trigger fresh momentum, while dips toward support are likely to invite accumulation.

Key Resistance: 60,100, 60,300, 60,400

Key Support: 59,500, 59,300, 59,000

Strategy: Traders may look to go long on a decisive breakout above the 60,300–60,350 zone in Bank Nifty February Futures, with a strict stop-loss below 60,100. On the upside, profit booking can be considered in the 60,650–60,700 range.

Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking

Price action resulted in the formation of a strong bullish (green) candlestick on the daily chart after taking support near the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), reflecting sustained momentum and improving market sentiment in the banking space.

Immediate resistance for the Bank Nifty is placed in the 60,200–60,300 zone, while the crucial support band of 59,600–59,700 remains important for maintaining near-term stability in the index. On the daily charts, the RSI stands at 56.34 and is trending higher, indicating strengthening bullish momentum and a positive bias.

Key Resistance: 60,200, 60,300

Key Support: 59,600, 59,700

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips near the 60,200 level for targets of 60,300–60,500, with a stop-loss of 59,700 on a closing basis.