Technical View: Nifty has to decisively break 25,300-25,600 zone for directional trend; easing VIX indicates stable volatility

Stock market: Sensex, Nifty see modest gains in trade.

• Sensex closed nearly flat, slipping 27 points to 82,248.61.
• Nifty ended up 14 points at 25,496.55 after range-bound trade.
• Volatility index fell over 3 percent, signaling lower uncertainty.

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The benchmark equity indices settled almost flat after a volatile session on Thursday, as investors largely stayed on the sidelines amid caution ahead of the US–Iran talks.

The Sensex slipped 27.46 points or 0.03 percent to settle at 82,248.61. During the day, it touched a high of 82,579.16 and a low of 81,970.47, swinging 608.69 points. The Nifty edged up 14.05 points or 0.06 percent to close at 25,496.55.

Analysts said the Nifty needs to decisively move out of the 25,300–25,600 band to establish a clear directional trend.

Gaurvav Garg of Lemonn Markets Desk said the index’s inability to reclaim the 25,500–25,600 zone capped the upside, with support seen near 25,400–25,300.

"A decisive move beyond this range is needed for the next directional trend; until then, markets are likely to remain range-bound with a negative bias," he said.

The volatility index, often referred to as the fear gauge, declined over 3 percent to 13.06. The index measures traders expectations of near-term market volatility and a fall in it indicates lower uncertainty.

Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, said the 50-day EMA zone of 25,630–25,660 will act as an immediate hurdle for the Nifty.

"Any sustainable move above 25,660 will lead to a sharp upside rally up to the 25,800 level. On the downside, the zone of 25,380–25,350 will act as crucial support for the index," he noted.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said the Nifty 50 witnessed another session of range-bound trade and closed flat.

"On the daily chart, the index has been consistently failing to reclaim the 21-EMA, exhibiting an overall lack of strength. The RSI is in a bearish crossover, indicating weakening momentum. The sentiment is likely to remain weak in the near term, with a possibility of falling towards 25,300. On the higher end, resistance is placed at 25,550–25,600," he added.

On the Bank Nifty view, Sudeep Shah added "Looking ahead, the 60800–60700 range will continue to serve as a crucial support base for the index. A sustained hold above this zone will maintain the positive undertone and prevent a deeper corrective move. On the upside, the region between 61400–61500 is expected to act as a significant resistance band, where supply pressure has previously capped upward momentum. A breakout above 61500, especially with strong volumes and a decisive close, is likely to trigger a sharp upward acceleration. If the index successfully surpasses this hurdle, it could pave the way for a near-term rally toward the 62000 mark, followed by a potential extension toward 62500 in the short term. Such a move would indicate a shift in momentum in favour of the bulls and could re-establish a stronger trending phase for the banking index."

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