Technical View: Crossing 25,500 crucial for upward journey in Nifty, India VIX hits over 13-month low

Nifty Outlook

The Nifty 50 was unable to see a follow-through upmove after the upside breakout of consolidation in the previous session and closed moderately lower amid choppy trading on July 9. On the hourly chart, the index still sustained above the downward-sloping resistance trendline and also maintained its position above the 50-period EMA this week.

Furthermore, the index consistently defended the 25,400 level, which can act as immediate support, followed by 25,300 as the key support, based on the change in polarity. On the higher side, if the index manages to sustain above 25,500, the 25,600–25,700 zone is expected to act as immediate resistance, followed by 26,000, according to experts.

The Nifty 50 touched an intraday high of 25,549 and a low of 25,424, before closing the session at 25,476, down 46 points. It formed a bearish candle with sizeable upper and lower shadows on the daily charts, indicating a volatile and rangebound session. The MACD has given a negative crossover, with a weakening histogram.

According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, the short-term trend remains choppy, though the near-term trend of Nifty continues to be positive.

“Further weakness from here could retest the lower support of 25,300 levels. A sustainable move above the upper range of 25,550 levels could open short-term upside towards 25,700 levels,” he said.

The weekly options data suggested that 25,500 is expected to be the crucial zone for the Nifty 50, while the broad trading range is expected to be 25,000–26,000 in the short term.

The maximum Call open interest was placed at the 25,500 strike, followed by the 26,000 and 25,600 strikes. The 25,500 strike also holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,400 and 25,000 strikes.

In terms of writing activity, the maximum Call writing was seen at the 25,500 strike, followed by 25,600 and 25,550 strikes. The maximum Put writing was observed at the 25,500 strike, followed by 24,900 and 25,000 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty closed 43 points down at 57,214 after trading within the previous day's range and formed a Doji candlestick pattern on the daily charts, indicating indecision among bulls and bears. The index still sustained above the 10-day and 20-day EMAs, which is a positive sign.

Going ahead, “the 20-day EMA zone of 56,800–56,700 will act as immediate support for the index. On the upside, any sustainable move above the level of 57,500 will lead to a sharp upside rally up to 58,200, followed by 58,600 in the short term,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, the fear index, extended its fall for another session and sustained in the lower zone, keeping the bulls in a strong position. It was down by 2.09 percent to 11.94, the lowest closing level since July 24, 2024.