Technical View: 26,000 to be crucial for further upside in Nifty 50, till then consolidation likely; India VIX cools; Bank Nifty ends three-day rally

Nifty outlook for February 11

• India VIX declines by 4.31% to 11.67 and slips below all key moving averages, signalling increased comfort for bulls
• Weekly options data continues to highlight 26,000 as a key resistance zone
• 25,900–25,800 band serves as immediate support for Nifty 50

Did our AI summary help?

The Nifty 50 maintained its uptrend for the third consecutive session, rising by one-third of a percent on February 10, the weekly F&O expiry session. The rally was largely supported by a significant cooling in India VIX, momentum indicators aligning with the market uptrend, and upward-trending moving averages. As a result, experts believe that the 26,000 level—where the index faced resistance on Tuesday—will be a crucial zone for further upside towards 26,200 and record highs. Until then, consolidation with range-bound trading cannot be ruled out, with support placed at 25,800.

The Nifty 50 opened higher at 25,923 and remained range-bound with a positive bias throughout the session. The index touched an intraday high of 25,989 before closing at 25,935, up 68 points. On the daily charts, the benchmark index formed a Doji-like candlestick pattern, indicating indecision between bulls and bears.

The index traded well above all key moving averages, with these averages continuing to trend upward. Momentum indicators also strengthened, with the RSI rising to 57.51, while the MACD extended upward and moved close to the zero line, accompanied by further upside in the histogram. All these signals indicate improving momentum.

“The 50-DMA, placed around 25,790, is acting as a crucial support. As long as the index holds above this level, gradual upward momentum is likely to continue towards 26,000,” said Nilesh Jain, VP and Head of Technical and Derivative Research at Centrum Finverse.

According to him, a decisive breakout above the 26,000 mark could trigger short covering and propel the index towards 26,200.

Weekly options data continues to highlight 26,000 as a key resistance zone, while the 25,900–25,800 band serves as immediate support. The maximum Call open interest is concentrated at the 26,000 strike, followed by 26,500 and 26,200, with the highest Call writing seen at 26,000, 26,100, and 26,500. On the Put side, the maximum open interest stands at 25,500, followed by 25,900, 26,000, and 25,800, while maximum Put writing is observed at 25,900, 26,000, and 25,500.

Meanwhile, India VIX, the volatility index, declined by 4.31 percent to 11.67 and slipped below all key moving averages, signalling increased comfort for bulls. As long as the VIX sustains below the 12 zone, bulls are expected to remain in control.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty failed to witness follow-up buying, snapping its two-day winning streak and closing 43 points lower at 60,626. The banking index traded within the previous day’s range and formed a small bearish candle on the daily timeframe, indicating consolidation and range-bound trading following the recent rally.

The index traded near the upper Bollinger Bands, with moving averages continuing to trend upward. The RSI flattened at 59.74 but maintained a bullish crossover, while the MACD extended its uptrend with a further uptick in the histogram. These signals indicate that momentum remains constructive despite consolidation.

According to Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, the broader structure of the index remains bullish, suggesting that any intraday or positional declines are likely to attract buying interest.

On the downside, immediate support is placed near 59,800, while resistance is seen around the 61,000 level, he added.