Closing Bell: Nifty ends around 18,400, Sensex gains 318 pts; realty index up 4%

Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities

Benchmarks were positive for a major part of the trading session where Nifty closed a tad below the psychological 18,400 mark. As long as Nifty’s 18,213 support is held, expect the index to bounce towards its psychological hurdle at 18500 mark and then aggressive targets at its all-time-high at 18,888 mark.

Rohan Patil, Technical Analyst, SAMCO Securities:

A cheerful mood was prevalent at Dalal Street in today’s trade as Nifty ended the day in green and the positive takeaway was that the optimistic baton witnessed a breakout above its previous week’s consolidation range.

The Nifty index continues to find a strong support near 18,350 levels and post that Index continued to trade in a higher high higher low formation through the day and closed 84 points higher at 18,399 levels with 0.46% gains.

Overall, it was an optimistic day as Nifty bulls enjoyed a bullish session as 35 out of 50 stocks closed in green. The momentum oscillator RSI (14) on the daily chart has taken support near 55 levels and shown a strong reversal with a bullish crossover on the cards.

The validity of the bullish pattern stands above 18,200 – 18,150 levels, if in case the frontline index closes below these levels then the gate is wide open till 18,000 – 17,900 levels. On the higher end, resistance is capped at 18,500 - 18,550 levels. A break of that levels will trigger a buy signal towards 18,700 levels or even higher.

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities:

Positive Asian and European market cues coupled with a further drop in wholesale inflation numbers fuelled a major rally as realty shares attracted significant buying interest. India's macroeconomic performance is showing further signs of improvement, and this is providing a major fillip to the markets.

Technically, the Nifty cleared the short term resistance of 18,400 but intraday profit booking at higher levels saw it close below 18,400. For the trend following traders now 18,300 would act as a sacrosanct support zone and above the same the positive momentum is likely to continue. Above which, the index could retest the level of 18,450.

Further upside may also continue which could lift the index till 18,550. On the flip side, below 18,300, the uptrend would be vulnerable and below the same, we may see a quick correction till 18,200-18,150.

Ajit Mishra, VP - Technical Research, Religare Broking

Markets started the week on a firm note and gained nearly half a percent amid mixed cues. After the flat start, the Nifty index inched gradually higher as the day progressed however profit taking in the final hour trimmed the gains. Consequently, it settled at 18,398 levels; up by 0.46%. Most sectors participated in the up move wherein realty, FMCG and banking were among the top contributors. The broader indices also witnessed decent traction and gained nearly a percent each.

The rotational buying in heavyweights from the key sectors viz. Banking, financial, auto and FMCG is helping the index to maintain a positive tone despite mixed global cues. And, indications are in favor of the prevailing trend to continue. Traders should align their positions accordingly and avoid contrarian trades.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services

Domestic benchmark indices are marching ahead driven by favourable developments such as declining inflation levels, steady foreign inflows, and in anticipation of robust earnings growth on a QoQ basis next quarter, due to drop in global commodity prices.

The domestic CPI inflation came in better than expected at 4.7%, and the WPI inflation decreased by 0.92%, reaffirming RBI’s decision to hold rate hikes.

Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas

The Nifty has finally managed to close above the upper boundary level of 18,350 which indicates breakout from a sideways consolidation range. The breakout has put the structure in favor of bulls. The index is likely to witness continuation of the positive momentum.

The ideal strategy to trade such a kind of scenario is to ride the uptrend with a trailing stoploss mechanism. On the upside, we expect the Nifty to reach levels of 18,500 and hence we change our outlook on the Nifty to positive from sideways.

The daily momentum indicator has triggered a negative crossover which is a sell signal, however, until price shows up evidence of the same, we shall continue to maintain a positive outlook.

In terms of levels, 18,500 – 18,520 is the immediate hurdle while 18,190 – 18,220 shall act as a crucial support zone and until this support zone is held, we can expect the dips to be bought into and the positive momentum to continue.

Rupee Close:

Indian rupee closed 14 paise lower at 82.30 per dollar against Friday's close of 82.16.

Market Close

: Indian benchmark indices ended on a positive note with Nifty around 18,400.

At close, the Sensex was up 317.81 points or 0.51 percent at 62,345.71, and the Nifty was up 84 points or 0.46percentat 18,398.80. About 1,861 shares advanced, 1,680 shares declined, and 167 shares wereunchanged.

Hero MotoCorp, Tata Motors, ITC, Tech Mahindra and HUL were among the top gainers on the Nifty, while losers were Adani Enterprises, Cipla, BPCL, Divis Labs and Grasim Industries.

Except for power, all other sectoral indices ended in the green with the realty index up over 4 percent, FMCG and PSU Bank indices up 1 percent each, while bank, auto, capital goods, information technology and metal up 0.5 percent each.

BSE midcap and smallcap indices rose 0.5 percent each.

Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas

USDINR CMP- 82.36 (spot) Indian Rupee depreciated today on a strong Dollar. However, FII inflows and weak crude oil prices cushioned the downside. Macroeconomic data from India was mixed. India’s consumer inflation declined to an 18-month low at 4.7% in April 2023 as compared to 5.66% in March 2023. However, India’s industrial production increased by 1.1% in March 2023, at a slower pace as compared to 5.6% in February 2023. India’s WPI declined to -0.92% in April as compared to 1.34% in the previous month. US Dollar gained on safe haven demand amid worries over debt ceiling crisis.

We expect Rupee to trade with a negative bias on risk-off sentiments on the back of the debt ceiling crisis and a strong Dollar. However, weak crude oil prices and foreign inflows may support Rupee at lower levels.

Traders may remain cautious ahead of India’s trade deficit and Empire State manufacturing index from US. Investors may watch out for retail sales data from US later this week. We expect USDINR spot to trade in between 81.80 to 82.75 in the near term.

Morgan Stanley View On HPCL 

-Underweight rating, target at Rs 220 per share
-Core earnings in-line with integrated margin back to mid-cycle run rate
-However, for FY23 the company reported its first ever full-year loss of Rs 7,300 crore
-Could see street shifting valuations from lower P/E to higher SOTP-based valuations

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation has touched a 52-week high of Rs 267.40 and was quoting at Rs 259.70, down Rs 1.15, or 0.44 percent on the BSE.

Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst - Commodities, HDFC Securities

Gold prices traded up on Monday, with spot gold price at Comex trading higher by 0.19percentat USD2023 per ounce. Gold Junefuture contract at MCX was trading up by 0.24 percentat Rs 61035 per 10 grams by the noon session.

Gold prices resumed trading on a positive note as safe-haven demand amid mounting fears over the US debt-ceiling crisis and banking sector crisis. In the previous week Comex spot gold price declined by 0.30% and settled at USD 2010.0 per ounce as a rally in the US dollar and lack of follow-up buying near the resistance level pushed the price lower. On the investment front, holdings in gold-backed ETF funds expanded to the highest in six months last week.

We expect bias to remain positive on Gold on the back of safe haven buying as ongoing concern about the US debt-ceiling crisis. For the week Comex spot gold has resistances at USD 2035/2060 per ounce and supports at USD 2010/1980 per ounce. MCX Gold June future has supports at Rs 60525/60300 per 10 grams and resistances at Rs 61400/61850 per 10 grams.

Arvinder Singh Nanda, Senior Vice President of Master Capital Services

The Bank Nifty index has crossed above the key psychological mark of 44000 for the first time this year and is now gearing up to approach the all-time high of 44151.80 made last year in December. This surge in prices is attributed to growing fundamental tailwinds in major heavyweight components. While the ongoing sentiments are quite bullish, it is important to note that prices are currently trading near their all-time high, and therefore, the possibility of a correctional fall cannot be ruled out.

The expected support level for such a correctional fall is around 43750, where a fresh round of buying can be witnessed. On the higher side, if prices manage to move above 44152 with a daily closing basis, then the next resistance level will align around 44500-45000.

Vascon Engineers Q4 results:

Vascon Engineers has posted a net profit of Rs 48.4 crore for the quarter ended March 2023 against Rs 10 crore in the same quarter last year and revenue was up 50.1 percentat Rs 327.3 crore versus Rs 218 crore, YoY.

CLSA View On DLF:

-Buy rating, target at Rs 540 per share
-Presale guidance of Rs 11,000-12,000 crore for FY24 looks conservative
-Office demand from third-party players is weak, but steady from GCCs
-Raise presale estimates for FY24/25 by 21%/14%

Market at 3 PM

benchmark indices erased some of the intraday gains but still trading higher with Nifty above 18,400.

The Sensex was up 404.63 points or 0.65 percentat 62,432.53, and the Nifty was up 108.00 points or 0.59percentat 18,422.80. About 1,755 shares advanced, 1,609 shares declined, and 144 shares were unchanged.

ALERT | NSE launches WTI crude, natural gas futures contracts

APL Apollo Tubes Q4 profit grows 14.3% YoY

APL Apollo Tubes has recorded a 14.3 percentyear-on-year growth in consolidated profit at Rs 201.8 crore for the March FY23 quarter driven by healthy operating performance. Revenue for the quarter at Rs 4,431 crore increased by 5.1 percent over a year-ago period.

APL Apollo Tubes was quoting at Rs 1,153.80, down Rs 25.45, or 2.16 percent on the BSE.

Navin Fluorine International Q4 profit zooms 81%

Navin Fluorine International has registered a massive 81.4% year-on-year growth in consolidated profit at Rs 136.4 crore for quarter ended March FY23 on strong operating performance and higher topline. Revenue for January-March period surged 70.5% to Rs 697.1 crore compared to same period last fiscal.

Navin Fluorine International touched 52-week high of Rs 4,922 and was quoting at Rs 4,714.95, down Rs 37.35, or 0.79 percent on the BSE.

Mohit Ralhan, Chief Executive Officer, TIW Capital

WPI inflation continued on a downward trajectory. It came in at -0.92% YoY, the lowest since July 2020. Fall came mainly on account of 2.42% YoY deflation in manufactured products. Sequentially, the wholesale price index remained unchanged as an increase in prices of primary articles was more than offset by a 2.68% decline in fuel and power prices.

Prices had stayed the same in March as well. A decline in WPI inflation indicates that producers are facing lower input costs. This should bode well for consumer inflation, as some benefits get passed along to the end consumers. A lower reading on both CPI and PPI will support RBI’s stance to keep rates on hold.

Asahi India Glass Q4:

Asahi India Glass has posted 46 percent fall in its Q4 net profit at Rs 68.9 crore against Rs 128.1 crore and revenue was up 13.6% at Rs 1,072.4 crore against Rs 943.6 crore, YoY.

Tube Investments Q4 earnings report

Tube Investments reported its Q4 earnings, with a net profit increase of 74.3 percentat Rs 312 crore compared to Rs 179 crore YoY. The company's revenue also grew by 12percent to Rs 3,656.3 crore from Rs 3,261 crore YoY. Tube Investments' EBITDA increased by an impressive 67.4percentat Rs 371.6 crore from Rs 222 crore YoY, and the margin increased from 6.8percent in Q4 FY22to 10.2 percent in Q4 FY23.

Century Ply Q4 earnings

Century Ply reported itsQ4 earnings, with a net profit increase of 29.5 percentat Rs 114.7 crore compared to Rs 88.5 crore YoY. The company's revenue also grew by 7.1percentto Rs 965.4 crore from Rs 901.1 crore YoY. Despite a challenging economic environment, Century Ply's EBITDA increased by 2percentat Rs 163.8 crore from Rs 160.7 crore YoY, although the EBIDTA margin declined slightly from 17.8percentto 17 percent.

Ethos Watches crashes as investors book profit after stellar Q4 show

Ethos Watches' share price declined over 10 percent on May 15, as investors rushed to book profits after a stellar Q4 show, said market participants.

The company's profit increased by 70.5 percent year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 13.3 crore, up from Rs 8 crore in the same period last year. Revenue from operations jumped 30.8 percent YoY to Rs 207.6 crore.

Trading volumes at 680,472 shares, were significantly higher than 20-day average volume of 123,617 shares. Ahead of Q4 results, in April, the stock rallied over 45 percent to Rs 1400.

Market at 2 PM

Benchmark indices extended the gains and trading ta day's high with Nifty around 18450.

The Sensex was up 482.29 points or 0.78 percentat 62,510.19, and the Nifty was up 126.90 points or 0.69 percent at 18,441.70. About 1,813 shares advanced, 1,489 shares declined, and 162 shares were unchanged.

JPMorgan View on Cipla

JPMorgan has kept an 'overweight' rating with a target price of Rs 1,050 per share.

The long-term growth levers are in place and the FY24 outlook remains steady. The Q4 was ahead of expectations, with the adjusted PAT beating estimates, driven by strong growth in India.

JPMorgan maintains a positive outlook on the market-beating growth outlook for the India business.

The strong pipeline of complex assets to drive longer-term growth in the US beyond FY25.

Cipla was quoting at Rs 915.20, down Rs 19.70, or 2.11 percent.

Karur Vysya Bank Q4 earnings:  

Karur Vysya Bank has posted 58.3 percent jump in its Q4 net profit at Rs 338 crore versus Rs 214 crore and net interest income (NII) was up 25.7 percentat Rs 892.6 crore versus Rs 710 crore, YoY.

Patel Engineering Company Q4 Results

Patel Engineering Company has posted net profit at Rs 83 crore versus Rs 34 crore and revenue was up 16.3% at Rs 1,298 crore versus Rs 1,116 crore, YoY.

Raghvendra Nath, MD, Ladderup Wealth Management:

WPI inflation is down to -0.92% in April 2023 from 1.34% in March 2023. This is the first time the WPI has slipped into negative territory since July 2020.

The fall in WPI inflation can be attributed to fall in prices of basic metals, food products, mineral oils, textiles, non-food articles, chemical and chemical products, rubber and rubber products and paper and paper products.

WPI food inflation came down to 0.17% in April from 2.32% in March. The fall in WPI is likely to have a positive impact on retail prices as well in terms of cooling them down as can be seen in the recent CPI figures.

CLSA View On Colgate Palmolive

-Underperform rating, target at Rs 1,610 per share
-Lower A&P spending leads to higher margins but category growth still slow
-Top-line growth remains slow
-Margin surprises on the upside, primarily due to lower A&P spending
-Dependence on oral care still high with limited visibility on growth

Max Financial Services drops 2% post disappointing Q4 results

Shares of Max Financial Services dropped 2 percent post poor Q4 results. At 10:40 am the Max Financial shares were trading 0.42 percent lower at Rs 654 on NSE.

Max Financial Services Ltd (MFSL) on May 12, 2023, reported a 64 percent decline in consolidated net profit at Rs 52 crore for the last quarter of 2022-23. The company had reported a net profit of Rs 144 crore in the January-March period a year ago.

The company registered consolidated revenue of Rs 9,929 crore in the quarter from Rs 8,960 crore in Q4FY23, MFSL said in a regulatory filing.

Nifty PSU Bank index up 1 percent led by Bank of Maharashtra, Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank

Neogen Chem plunges 5% on disappointing quarterly performance

Shares of Neogen Chemcials plunged nearly 5 percent on May 15, bogged down by the company's weak quarterly performance.

The company's consolidated net profit for the fourth quarter slipped 9 percent on-year to Rs 14.3 crore mainly because of weak operating metrics.

Raw material inflation, along with high finance costs on the back of expansion plans, dragged the company's EBIDTA margin down 100
basis points year-on-year to 16 percent during the January-March quarter.

Morgan Stanley View On Avenue Supermarts

-Equal-weight rating, target at Rs 3,853 per share
-Top-line growth moderated on a 4-year basis & Q4 EBITDA margin were below estimates
-Lower demand for better margin apparel & general merchandise categories remains a challenge

BSE FMCG index added 1 percent led by Kokuyo Camlin, Sukhjit Starch, Magadh Sugar

Morgan Stanley View On Manappuram Finance

Manappuram Finance was quoting at Rs 110.85, up Rs 0.90, or 0.82 percent on the BSE.

Dheer Shah, CFO, BDR Pharma

After CPI inflation the April WPI inflation has fallen in the negative territory. The wholesale inflation has fallen to a nearly 3-year low. Most components have eased due to several causes, including those in the manufacturing, primary commodities, fuel, and power sectors. The data has been gradually easing over the past six months, consistently in sync with the retail inflation. The fall in wholesale inflation is a big positive ahead of the onset of the monsoon season. As we advance, a good monsoon season will help to keep WPI inflation constant, however, a rise in oil prices could threaten both wholesale and retail inflation.

The current set of data will help the central bank to stay on an extended pause with a possibility of rate easing from CY24.

Market at 1 PM

The Sensex was up 448.47 points or 0.72% at 62,476.37, and the Nifty was up 120.00 points or 0.66% at 18,434.80. About 1794 shares advanced, 1467 shares declined, and 165 shares unchanged.

Goodluck India Q4 Results

Goodluck India has posted 15.2percentnet profit at Rs 28 crore versus Rs 24.3 crore and revenue was up 10.4 percent at Rs 764.5 crore versus Rs 692.3 crore, YoY.

Good Luck India was quoting at Rs 473.00, down Rs 10.10, or 2.09 percent on the BSE.

Birla Corporation arm RCCPL acquires mining rights in Madhya Pradesh

Birla Corporation's subsidiary RCCPL has acquired the mining rights comprising of 889.760 hectares at Katni, Madhya Pradesh pursuant to a Tripartite Agreement executed with Government of Madhya Pradesh and Sanghi Infrastructure MP Limited. RCCPL has acquired 100% equity shares of Sanghi Infrastructure MP Limited.

Accordingly, Sanghi has become a wholly owned subsidiary of RCCPL and a step down wholly owned subsidiary of Birla Corporation.

Birla Corporation was quoting at Rs 1,005.20, up Rs 5.55, or 0.56 percent on the BSE.

Kalyan Jewellers Q4 earnings:

Kalyan Jewellers has posted 1.6 percent fall in its Q4 net profit at Rs 71 crore versus Rs 72 crore and revenue was up 18.4% at Rs 3,381.8 crore versus Rs 2,857 crore, YoY.

Kalyan Jewellers India was quoting at Rs 106.50, down Rs 2.15, or 1.98 percent on the BSE.

Indraprastha Gas Q4 profit drops 7.8%

Indraprastha Gas has recorded a 7.8 percentyear-on-year decline in consolidated profit at Rs 397.5 crore for the quarter ended March FY23, impacted by weak operating margin performance. Revenue from operations (including excise duty) increased sharply by 53.3percentto Rs 4,061.63 crore compared to the same period last year, with total volumes increasing by 16percentYoY to 8.09 mmscmd.

Indraprastha Gas was quoting at Rs 493.10, up Rs 3.30, or 0.67 percent on the BSE.

April WPI Inflation at -0.92 percent versus 1.34 percent, MoM.  

Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart

The Banknifty index has been demonstrating strong leadership and is expected to reach a new all-time high. However, it is important to acknowledge the possibility of profit booking at this level. If the index manages to stay above the previous high of 44151, it is likely to move toward the 44444 and 45000 levels.

On the downside, the rising 20-day moving average (DMA) offers a robust support level, currently located at the 43000 level, and is expected to counter any potential pullbacks. It is worth noting that a significant profit booking may only occur if the index falls below the 20-DMA.

Indian Overseas Bank Q4 profit jumps 17.7%

Indian Overseas Bank has reported a 17.7percentyear-on-year growth in standalone profit Rs 650 crore in Q4FY23, backed by higher net interest income and lower provisions. Higher pre-provision operating profit also boosted profitability.

Net interest income grew by 41.4 percent YoY to Rs 2,276.11 crore for the March FY23 quarter. Asset quality improved with the gross NPA falling 75 bps QoQ to 7.44 percentand the net NPA declining 60 bps to 1.83 percentin Q4FY23. The board approved fundraising of Rs 1,000 crore via equity issuance and another Rs 1,000 crore via issuance of bonds.

Indian Overseas Bank was quoting at Rs 25.04, down Rs 0.19, or 0.75 percent.

Nifty Bank index rose 0.5% led by Bandhan Bank, Bank of Baroda, IDFC First Bank