Nifty could accelerate decline towards 24,800 on sustained move below 200-day EMA, say experts; resistance seen at 25,200

Stock market today news: Sensex, Nifty see profit booking in trade. 

The benchmark equity indices extended losses for a third straight session on Wednesday amid heightened geopolitical tensions, weak cues from global markets and continued foreign fund outflows.

Recovering a large part of its sharp intra-day fall, the Sensex settled 270.84 points, or 0.33 percent, lower at 81,909.63. During the day, the index had slumped 1,056.02 points, or 1.28 percent, to hit an intra-day low of 81,124.45.

The Nifty declined 75 points, or 0.3 percent, to settle at 25,157.50.

Technical analysts said the Nifty remains under pressure and could see further downside if it sustains below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).

According to Bajaj Broking, the Nifty formed a high-wave candle on the daily chart while posting a lower high and a lower low, indicating continuation of the ongoing corrective phase. The index slipped below the previous session’s low and briefly breached the 25,000 mark, touching an intra-day low of 24,919.8, before recovering amid oversold conditions.

Despite the rebound, the index closed near its 200-day EMA, placed around 25,161, after decisively trading below it during the session. "The broader bias remains negative. A sustained move below the 200-day EMA could accelerate the decline towards the 24,800 level. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 25,200, followed by 25,500," the brokerage said.

Nilesh Jain, head of technical and derivatives research at Centrum Broking Ltd, said markets continued to witness sharp volatility, with the Nifty recovering from lower levels and closing marginally above its 200-day moving average.

On the daily chart, the index formed a high-wave Doji, reflecting indecision among participants, he said. The relative strength index (RSI) has entered deeply oversold territory at 28, indicating scope for a short-term pullback. However, the broader trend remains weak as long as the Nifty trades below its 100-day moving average at 25,580, Jain added.

He said immediate support levels are placed at 25,120 and 25,000. The India VIX rose 7 percent to close at 13.60, signalling elevated uncertainty in the market.

Sudeep Shah, head of technical and derivatives research at SBI Securities, said the 24,950-24,900 zone will act as immediate support for the Nifty. A sustained move below this range could extend weakness towards lower levels, while the 25,300-25,350 zone is expected to act as an immediate resistance on the upside.

Meanwhile, Bank Nifty underperformed, closing 1.02 per cent lower at 58,800 after breaking below its upward-sloping trendline on the daily chart. The index also slipped below its 50-day EMA of 59,040.

Shah said momentum indicators for Bank Nifty continue to weaken, with the RSI hovering near 40 and bearish signals emerging. The 58,200-58,100 zone, corresponding to the 100-day EMA, is seen as immediate support. A sustained move below 58,100 could drag the index towards 57,800. On the upside, resistance is placed in the 59,100-59,200 range.

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