Next week may test traders' patience; Nifty needs to break 25,150 for the next leg up

Nifty Uptrend

The Nifty index saw sharp swings throughout the previous week, yet it wrapped up with just a 0.67 percent dip, still managing to hold its ground. This choppy action yet again sparked bullish vibes and recharged confidence among traders. The index maintained its higher high–higher low pattern, and the weekly candle showed an optimistic stance, with a big lower wick and closing near its open—a textbook sign of bulls taking charge at lower zones.

Nifty comfortably stays above its 20-day EMA, which yet again underlines the bullish structure. Price behaviour hints at accumulation by stronger hands, as each intraday fall was met with heavy buying, suggesting traders are still building long positions. As long as the index remains firm above the 24,500 support zone and floats above key moving averages, the bulls still look in control.

Momentum-wise, daily RSI (Relative Strength Index) is back in upward motion, hovering near 60, supporting the idea that momentum is still alive. As the index dances above 24,800, every dip yet seems like a golden add-on chance for long players, especially since Put writers are confidently loading up at the downside, tightening the floor.

Open Interest (OI) Trends

Nifty Futures OI slipped mildly from 11.97 million to 10.40 million shares, down 1.57 million through the week. This minor OI fall paired with a 0.67 percent price drop points to long unwinding, as buyers quietly trimmed their bets. Yet, sellers got caught on the wrong foot in the last session, and the sharp bounce from lows signals heightened volatility as we step into next week.

FPI Activity

Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) were seen lightly cutting exposure, gradually unwinding long bets from the past two weeks. The FPI long-short ratio fell from 42.37 percent to 32.99 percent, reflecting a cautious turn among big market players. With FPIs emerging as net sellers and yet building bearish stakes, the broader bullish setup stays under watch. This pattern suggests a sideways undertone, where swings are absorbed, and the “range trading” approach yet holds value.

Options Data Insights

Derivative numbers reveal a crowded picture. The largest Call OI was seen at the 25,000 strike, while the strongest Put base is at the 24,500 strike. Concentrated action between 24,800–25,000 Calls and 24,600–24,500 Puts shows immediate resistance at 24,800 and firm support at 24,600. Both Call and Put writers added weight at their zones, a classic sign of consolidation. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) lifted to 1.02, showing bulls are trying to yet again tighten control. But a decisive break above 25,150 is yet needed to unlock short-covering fuel and push Nifty swiftly toward 25,500.

Outlook for the Week Ahead

The Nifty has safeguarded its swing low and staged a strong recovery, sending a loud signal: bulls are yet unwilling to step aside. The price setup continues making higher tops and bottoms, holding above the 20-day EMA, so the trend points upward. Immediate support sits near 24,500, where aggressive Put writing offers a protective base.

On the upside, the 24,800–25,000 zone is tricky, crowded with resistance and Call build-up. Only if Nifty clears 25,150 can we see a quick rally toward 25,500. But unless the index slips below 24,500, expect dip-buying to stay the dominant play. With long unwinding yet underway and FPIs turning more bearish, the market mood is turning volatile. Next week may yet test traders' patience, as no clear direction is stealing the stage, leaving players searching for stronger signals amid all the noise.

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