Closing Bell: Nifty ends around 17,600, Sensex up 144 pts; realty, auto outperform

Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Domestic indices welcomed RBI’s decision to keep interest rate unchanged. Nifty gained strength after policy outcome and remained in positive territory throughout the session to close with gains of 42 points at 17599 levels. Except FMCG, IT and Consumer Durables, all sectors ended in green. Volatility index, India VIX fell further to 11.8, giving some comfort to traders.

Additionally, FIIs have been continuous buyers for last five days to the tune of Rs 4263 crore and their F&O short positions have reduced from 92% to 83%, providing strength to the market.

After six consecutive hikes, RBI kept rate unchanged at 6.5%. The decision came in as surprise after majority of the central banks around the world continued to increase rates in an effort to tame stubbornly high inflation. Rate pause and encouraging domestic economic data continues to provide positive undertone to the market. However, given the backdrop of global uncertainties and fear of US recession, we might see range bound movement in the near term.

Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

The Indian rupee traded volatile after RBI surprised the market by pausing the rate with a warning. The local unit initially decline but strengthen following recovery in the domestic equities backed by foreign fund inflows.

With today’s pause, the carry trade is back in the rupee. The spread between India’s bond yield premium over the US makes the rupee more attractive as a carry target.

In the near term, spot USDINR is expected to trade between 81.70 to 82.50 with a bearish bias.

Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Analyst, Kotak Securities

Markets maintained their upward journey led by a sharp rally in realty stocks after RBI paused on its rate hike decision that prompted traders to lap up realty stocks on hopes stable interest rates going ahead would revive the sentiment in residential segment. While Sensex came close to hit the 60,000 mark, the sluggish sentiment amid a cold response to the RBI outcome kept the rally under check.

Technically, after a long time, the Nifty reclaimed the level of the 200-day SMA and has formed a bullish candle on daily and weekly charts. We are of the view that 17,500 and 17,375 would act as key support areas for the index while 17,700 -17,800 could act as resistance zone.

Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty has also formed a bullish candle on weekly charts and is successfully trading above the 50-day SMA. For the index, 40,700 or the 50-day SMA could be the sacrosanct support zone and above which it could move up till 41,500-41,700.

Kunal Shah, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst at LKP Securities

The Bank index continued its rally on the upside and any dip was bought confidently by the bulls. The index surpassed the level of 40,000 last week and post that there has been a one-way rally.

The index is now trading around the next resistance zone of 41,000 and if we sustain above this in the upcoming week we expect the rally to continue higher toward the 42,000 mark. The lower-end support is visible at the 40,600-40,500 zone which will act as a cushion for the bulls.

Ajit Mishra, VP - Technical Research, Religare Broking

Markets settled marginally higher in a volatile session, in continuation of the prevailing trend. After the initial downtick, Nifty surged strongly after the MPC’s unchanged stance on key rates, however profit taking around 17,600+ zone capped the upside. Finally, it settled at the 17,599 level; up by 0.24%.

A mixed trend on the sectoral front kept the traders busy wherein realty, financials and auto posted decent gains. The broader indices edged higher and gained in the range of 0.5%-0.8%.

The stability on the global front has eased some pressure and now the focus would shift to earnings for cues. We expect some consolidation in Nifty citing multiple hurdles around the 17,600-17,700 zone. However, the rotational buying across index majors would help in maintaining the positive tone. Meanwhile, participants should continue with a stock-specific approach with a focus on overnight risk management.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services

The surprising policy move to pause interest rate hikes has had a convincing effect on bond yields and the stock market. A plausible peaking of the interest rate will have an positive effect on the financial markets, which was reflected in today’s drop in yield and marginal upside of domestic stock market when the Asian market was negative.

However, the trend to continue during the year will depend on a consistent fall in inflation, which is forecasted to stay elevated above the FY24 target. Given the high gap between current and target inflation, the RBI will have to hold the rates high for a long period, limiting the upside.

Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas:

The Nifty continued with the positive momentum and closed with gains for the fifth consecutive trading session. It has managed to close above the falling channel which is a positive sign.

The Daily Bollinger bands are contracting which indicates that the upside might be limited from heron. Also on the hourly momentum indicator we can observe negative divergence which indicates loss of momentum on the upside. After witnessing 700 points rally in the last five trading sessions a consolidation is highly likely.

Thus, considering the above factors we expect the Nifty to consolidate over the next few trading sessions and any dip towards the support zone of 17,500 – 17,430 should be used as an opportunity to create fresh long positions.

Rupee Close:

Indian rupee ended higher at 81.89 per dollar against previous close of 82.

Market Close:

Indian benchmark indices ended on a positive note amid volatility with Nifty around 17,600.

At close, the Sensex was up 143.66 points or 0.24% at 59,832.97, and the Nifty was up 42.20 points or 0.24% at 17,599.20. About 2310 shares advanced, 1121 shares declined, and 110 shares unchanged.

Adani Enterprises, Bajaj Finance, Tata Motors, Bajaj Finserv and Sun Pharma were among the biggest gainers on the Nifty, while losers were HCL Technologies, ONGC, Axis Bank, Tech Mahindra and ICICI Bank.

Among sectors, realty index added 3 percent, auto index gained 1 percent, while pharma, capital goods, oil & gas, power up 0.5 percent each. However, FMCG, IT and metal down 0.5% each.

The BSE midcap and smallcap indices rose 0.7 percent each.

Nomura View On Godrej Consumer Products

-Buy rating, target at Rs 1,100 per share
-Strong performance on volumes; margin improvement on track
-Revenue growth improved to double digits YoY

Godrej Consumer Products touched a 52-week high of Rs 978.50 and quoting at Rs 966.70, down Rs 2.95, or 0.30 percent.

Jefferies View On Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company

-Buy call, target at Rs 900 per share
-Q4 disbursement grew 65 percent YoY, well above our estimate
-Auto finance disbursement grew 39 percent YoY
-New business disbursements (23 percent QoQ) formed 22 percent of total

Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company touched a 52-week high of Rs 846 and was quoting at Rs 844, up Rs 62.50, or 8 percent.

Morgan Stanley View On Tata Steel:

-Equal-weight call, target at Rs 110 per share
-Q4 sales volume declined 2 percent YoY but saw seasonal QoQ improvement
-Exports remained in a lull but domestic demand picked up
-European business sales remained lower than production

Tata Steel was quoting at Rs 104.35, down Rs 0.50, or 0.48 percent.

Paras Defence arm receives Type Certificate from DGCA

Paras Defence and Space Technologies' subsidiary Paras Aerospace Private has received Type Certificate from DGCA (Directorate General of Civil Aviation), Drone Directorate, Govt. of India, for it’s Agri Drone – “Paras-Agricopter”.

Paras Defence and Space Technologies was quoting at Rs 493.70, up Rs 9.60, or 1.98 percent.

Market at 3 PM

Benchmark indices were trading higher amid volatility.

The Sensex was up 146.15 points or 0.24% at 59,835.46, and the Nifty was up 42.80 points or 0.24% at 17,599.80. About 2213 shares advanced, 1083 shares declined, and 84 shares unchanged.

Mitual Shah Head of Research Reliance Securities

The RBI MPC surprised the street by keeping the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% against consensus expectation of a 25bps hike. However, the governor reiterated that this was a pause and not a pivot. Inflation still continues to remain above target and the central bank remains focused on withdrawal of accommodation.

The MPC forecasted FY24 GDP growth at 6.5% while the inflation forecast was cut to 5.2% from 5.3% forecasted in the February meeting.

Overall cautious sounding on economy and global uncertainty would continue pressure on equity markets for near term, while its bottoming out slowly ahead of likely bounce back soon. Markets would be watchful of large IT results and inflation print to be announced next week.

Phoneix Mills Q4 Update | Total consumption in March 2023 was Rs 7,220 million, 113% of March 2022; 132% of March 2019

Phoenix Mills was quoting at Rs 1,283.35, down Rs 14.05, or 1.08 percent.

Ashoka Buildcon get LoAs for projects worth Rs 2,285 crore

Ashoka Buildcon has received Letters of Award (LoA) from Maharashtra State Electricity Distribution Company Limited (MSEDCL) for development of distribution infrastructure at various Circles in the state of Maharashtra.

The accepted contract value in aggregate for all projects is Rs 2,285.02 crore.

BSE Smallcap index gained 0.6 percent supported by Rama Phosphates, Vakrangee, Dhani Services

Greaves Cotton director Kewal Handa resigns

Kewal Handa has resigned as Independent Director of Greaves Cotton with effect from April 5 due to his professional commitments. Kewal has confirmed that there are no other material reasons for his resignation.

Greaves Cotton was quoting at Rs 132.95, down Rs 2.40, or 1.77 percent.

Godrej Consumer Products reclaims Rs 1 lakh crore mcap on strong Q4 performance

Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) has regained its Rs 1 lakh croremarket capitalization following a 1% increase in its stock price, driven by strong double-digit volume and value growth in the March quarter. The company anticipates delivering consolidated double-digit growth in rupee terms, led by mid-single digit volume growth, gross margin recovery, and continued marketing investments, which should translate to robust double-digit Ebitda growth. Over the past month, GCPL's stock has outperformed the market, surging 6% compared to a 0.51% decline in the S&P BSE Sensex, and over the last year, it has rallied 29% compared to a 0.51% rise in the benchmark index. The company hit a record high of Rs 1,138.50 in September 2021.

Adani Group's Reassurance Boosts Shares of All 10 Related Companies in Mumbai

All 10 companies related to the Adani Group saw gains in Mumbai as the conglomerate announced that its near-term liquidity requirements are comfortable. According to a statement from the port-to-power conglomerate's spokesperson after the market closed on Wednesday, there is no significant refinancing risk, and no large debt repayments are due in the coming months. As a result, flagship Adani Enterprises surged by as much as 4 percent, while NDTV, Adani Total Gas, Adani Green Energy, and Adani Transmission hit 5 percent upper circuit, Adani Wilmar rose 3.46 percent, Adani Power gained 1.8 percent, Adani Ports 1.15 percent, ACC gained 1.33 percent, Ambuja Cements 1.21 percent

Maruti Suzuki receives 'buy' rating from Prabhudas Lilladher, target price set at Rs 9,250

After a brief dip from 9,030 levels, the stock of Maruti has consolidated well and appears to have bottomed out around the 8,150 mark, with encouraging volume participation indicating a potential uptick. Furthermore, breaching the significant 200 DMA level could reinforce this trend, leading to further gains in the near future. With the RSI pointing to a trend reversal and signaling a buy, there is significant upside potential from current levels. Prabhudas Lilladher recommends a 'buy' ratingfor a target of Rs 9,250, with support at Rs 8,150.

Surprise RBI move sparks bond rally in India

Following an unexpected pause in the rate-hiking cycle by the central bank, bonds of various tenors in India experienced a rally. This led to stocks erasing their earlier losses and the rupee gaining strength. Specifically, the five-year yield decreased by nine basis points to 7.05 percent. Additionally, a Bloomberg report stated that the average yield for top-rated company notes due in both three-year and 10-year periods eased by 10 basis points.

Market at 2 PM

Benchmark indices erased most of the intraday gains and trading flat.

Sensex was up 21.67 points or 0.04 percentat 59,710.98, while Nifty was up 10.80 points or 0.06 percentat 17,567.80. About 2,106 shares advanced, 1,131 shares declined, and 109 shares were unchanged.

BSE Realty index rose 3 percent supported by Godrej Properties, Oberoi Realty, DLF

BSE Midcap index rose 0.5 percent led by Cholamandalam Investment, Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services, Godrej Properties

CLSA View On Banks 

-Q4 should remain strong for banks with record margin
-Expect NIM to edge up slightly, but commentary for FY24 will be key
-Deposit accretion remains key deliverable & ICICI/PSU banks relatively better placed
-Expect PPoP growth to be strongest for Axis Bank/ICICI Bank
-Kotak Mahindra Bank/HDFC Bank should deliver 20 percent YoY core PPoP growth
-ICICI Bank, Axis Bank & SBI are preferred picks

Shrey Jain, Founder and CEO, SAS Online

Residential real estate especially in the mid and low-income level category will get a breather as this segment is quite sensitive to interest rates. Not only do higher interest rates discourage home buyers they also lead to increased borrowing costs for developers thus impacting project costs.

Having said that luxury real estate market has been seeing robust demand, especially with the Government capping deduction of capital gains arising out of the sale of long-term assets to Rs 10 crore.

Nifty FMCG index shed 0.5 percent dragged by Varun Beverages, Dabur India, Jubilant FoodWorks

Citi View On Avenue Supermarts

Research firm Citi, however, has kept sell rating on the stock, with a target at Rs 3,460 a share.

The average revenue per store came in at only +2.3 percent 3-year CAGR, while average revenue/sqft was further disappointing at -3 percent 3-year CAGR.

The broking firm remained cautious at current valuations, given the risk around margin and earnings, CNBC-TV18 said.

Avenue Supermarts was quoting at Rs 3,518.10, down Rs 136.05, or 3.72 percent.

Y. Viswanatha Gowd, MD & CEO of LIC Housing Finance

Keeping repo rates the same is a welcome decision. This may put to rest the anxiety amongst the borrowers that emanated with the EMI increase consequent to a series of repo rate hikes.

Today’s move sends a positive signal and improves the sentiments.

We expect the real estate along with other sectors to build up on this as it has come at the beginning of the new financial year. The prospective homebuyers will now be encouraged to crystallise their buying decision.

GM Breweries Q4 net profit falls 12.5 percent at Rs 35.1 crore

GM Breweries has posted 12.5 percent fall in its fourth quarter net profit at Rs 35.1 crore versus Rs 40.1 crore and revenue was up 9.8 percentat Rs 156 crore against Rs 142 crore, on year.

GM Breweries was quoting at Rs 577.85, down Rs 8.05, or 1.37 percent on the BSE.

Prakash Industries pays entire term loan of Rs 33 crore ahead of maturity

Prakash Industries has prepaid entire term loan to Indostar Capital Finance of around Rs 33 crore ahead of its maturity. The company is committed to reduce the pledge of promoter's shares.

Prakash Industries was quoting at Rs 52.40, down Rs 0.30, or 0.57 percent on the BSE.

Singer India appoints Rakesh Khanna as Executive Vice Chairman & MD

Rajeev Bajaj will step down as Managing Director of Singer India to pursue other interests. Bajaj will continue with the company till April 30, 2023 to provide transition and support to his successor.

Company has appointed Rakesh Khanna as Executive Vice Chairman & Managing Director with effect from April 5.

Nifty Metal index rose 1 percent supported by Adani Enterprises, Hindustan Zinc, Welspun Corp

Mohit Ralhan - Chief Executive Officer, TIW Capital

RBI’s decision to pause the rate hike indicates its confidence in the persistent downward pressure on inflation. The expectation of record rabi foodgrains production, above-trend manufacturing production and moderation in commodity prices are crucial factors behind this pause. Having raised the benchmark rates already by 240 basis points, it’s an opportune time to wait and watch the direction of the global economy before committing another rate hike or pivoting to a rate decline.

Also, the full impact of the earlier rate hikes are still to be realized through the macroeconomic system, which RBI would like to assess before deciding on the next course of action. The challenges in the US banking system have also brought uncertainty on impending policy actions of the Fed necessitating the approach taken by RBI now. The good news is that the Indian economy remains resilient and the expected GDP growth of 7 percent, gives sufficient policy maneuvering room for RBI.

Market at 1 PM

Benchmark indices were trading at day's high with Nifty above 17,600.

The Sensex was up 253.00 points or 0.42 percentat 59,942.31, and the Nifty was up 75.70 points or 0.43 percentat 17,632.70. About 2,216 shares advanced, 980 shares declined, and 105 shares were unchanged.

Tube Investments Large Trade | 4.70 lakh shares (0.24% equity) worth Rs 122.70 crore change hands at Rs 2,606 per share, reported CNBC-TV18.

Dalmia Bharat Sugar to set up grain-based distillery at Nigoh

Dalmia Bharat Sugar and Industries has given approval to the company for setting up of grain-based distillery at Nigohi unit with a capacity of 250 KLPD with a capital expenditure of Rs 400 crore.

This distillery is expected to be commissioned by September 2024. Post commissioning, total distillery capacity would be 1100 KLPD (cane based 600 KLPD and grain based 500 KLPD).

Also the board approved capacity expansion at Ramgarh sugar unit from 6,600 TCD to 7,000 TCD at capex of Rs 14 crore. Post commissioning of the project, the total crushing capacity of the company would be 38,250 TCD.

Dalmia Bharat Sugar and Industries was quoting at Rs 364.60, up Rs 6.95, or 1.94 percent on the BSE.

Shrey Jain, Founder and CEO, SAS Online

India is probably one of the first nations to have a change in stance and go ahead with rate pause. Amid the global banking crisis and emerging recessionary fears, this signifies India is well positioned in comparison to its peers. Rate pause will definitely support growth across sectors, especially real estate.

Equitas Small Finance Bank clocks 36% YoY growth in Q4 gross advances

Equitas Small Finance Bank has registered a 36 percentyear-on-year growth in gross advances at Rs 28,061 crore for quarter ended March FY23, and the sequential growth was 13 percent, as per provisional data.

Disbursements for the quarter at Rs 5,917 crore increased by 80 percentYoY & 23 percentQoQ. Total deposits during the quarter at Rs 25,381 crore grew by 34 percentYoY and 8 percentQoQ. CASA ratio in Q4FY23 came in at 42 percent, against 52 percentin same period last year.

Anitha Rangan, Economist, Equirus

In a surprising move RBI indicated a pause in the monetary policy keeping Repo unchanged at 6.5 percentwith “Readiness to Act should the situation so warrant” with a unanimous vote maintaining stance of “Withdrawal of Accommodation”. Again governor emphasized that the pause is in this meeting only.

With inflation revised downward and growth upwards raising the question of why pause? Four reasons we can think of a) government borrowing program which has just begun needs support b) Currency led by global factors is giving some elbow room to pause c) Watch the Fed policy in May. d) allow some time for genuine transmission of policy hikes done so far.

While there may be many reasons to pause, the fact that RBI has noted their “readiness to act should the situation warrant” and “job is not yet finished” suggests that the pause in all likelihood is temporary. If Fed hikes RBI will be bound to hike once more. The recent oil supply action from OPEC is a reminder of global uncertainty. There may be room to pause but not led the guard down!

Sunil Damania, Chief Investment Officer, MarketsMojo

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has made a prudent decision to pause the rate hike, considering the uncertainty prevailing in the global financial market and the potential challenges that may arise for India's growth due to the lack of clarity on the El-Nino phenomenon. The RBI's decision to take a pause is aimed at supporting growth in the economy.

While the Governor of the RBI has indicated that the pause in the rate hike is applicable only for this meeting, the central bank remains highly vigilant about the growth in the economy and will assess the situation carefully before taking any future rate hikes. In these uncertain times, the RBI recognizes that another rate hike could potentially hamper the growth momentum of the economy.