Emkay sets Nifty target at 29,000 by Dec 2026 on demand revival, RBI's liquidity infusion, likely India-US trade deal

Emkay Global says Nifty could surge to 29,000 by 2026.

Emkay Global Financial Services has projected the Nifty to touch 29,000 by December 2026, citing a likely pick-up in discretionary consumption, liquidity support from the Reserve Bank of India and expectations of an India-US trade agreement.

In its India Strategy 2026 outlook, the brokerage said it sees valuations staying elevated through the period. It added that GST reforms and an improvement in affordability are expected to aid consumption and support overall economic momentum. The RBI’s “do what it takes” approach, Emkay said, is likely to revive retail lending even as near-term market volatility may persist.

According to the firm, a combination of GST-driven consumption trends, a softer interest rate environment and policy stability provides a constructive backdrop for medium-term growth. It also expects a normal monsoon to help incomes and spur a consumption recovery, with an additional boost anticipated from tax cuts in the FY26 Union Budget.

Emkay has maintained an Overweight stance on Discretionary, Industrials, Healthcare and Materials for 2026, pointing to improving demand indicators and steady earnings visibility. It said discretionary consumption remains its strongest theme, supported by GST-led price cuts, firmer urban demand and early signs of improvement in hiring.

The brokerage remains Underweight on Financials, Staples, IT and Telecom. It noted that large banks continue to face valuation pressures amid rising competition from PSU lenders and NBFCs. The IT sector, while more reasonably valued, is expected to see a sustained recovery only by CY26 as global technology spending stabilises.

The equity benchmarks touched fresh record highs on December 1, 2025, after the economy grew 8.2 percent in the July-September quarter, the fastest pace in six quarters.

The Sensex advanced 452.35 points to close at a new peak of 86,159.02, while the Nifty rose 122.85 points to settle at an all-time high of 26,325.80.