The market reversed with moderate gains with above-average volumes after a week of correction, and amid rising volatility for the week ended February 20. Escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, coupled with a sharp rise in crude oil prices and uncertainty surrounding the US Fed’s rate-cut trajectory, sparked broad-based selling. In addition, the concerns around AI-led disruption and margin pressures continued to weigh down the IT stocks.
However, the resilience in large caps, selective sectoral flows, optimism around India’s participation in Pax Silica, and strong buying in banking & financials, energy and select FMCG stocks helped the market close higher for the week.
On Monday, the market is expected to start on a strong note following the US Supreme Court ruling against Trump tariffs, bringing significant uncertainty down but the upside may be capped as the disappointed Trump has decided to increase global tariffs and signalled other ways to impose tariffs. Overall, the week is expected to be rangebound until the Nifty 50 decisively surpassing and sustaining above psychological 26,000 zone, with focus on further updates related to India-US trade deal (especially after SC verdict), US-Iran developments, oil prices, weekly US jobs data, FIIs mood, Q3FY26 GDP numbers, experts said, adding the monthly F&O expiry-led volatility can't be ruled out.
The Nifty 50 rose 100 points (0.39 percent) to 25,571, and the BSE Sensex soared 188 points (0.23 percent) to 82,815, while the Nifty Midcap 100 index advanced 0.13 percent, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 index fell 0.18 percent.
"Globally, investors will assess the implications of the verdict announced by the Supreme Court of the United States on tariffs. Any policy recalibration or legal interpretation affecting trade measures could have cross-border ramifications," Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research at Religare Broking said.
Additionally, he said markets would monitor developments following a fresh executive order by the President of the United States, which may influence trade dynamics, tariff structures, and global risk sentiment. "Clarity on the proposed India–US interim trade agreement, with Indian officials visiting the US to finalize the legal framework, will also remain in focus.
Apart from the Supreme Court verdict and Trump's reaction, "the market will closely monitor the developments between the US and Iran, crude oil price movements, and global monetary signals. Although volatility may stay elevated, strong domestic macro fundamentals and a supportive demand environment are expected to provide a cushion," Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments said.
According to him, the release of India’s GDP data next week will be keenly watched for its implications on earnings momentum and broader market positioning. Overall, markets are likely to trade within a range, with liquidity flows and global developments shaping short-term movements, he said.
Here are 10 key factors to watch next week:
Supreme Verdict, and Trump Mood
The Supreme Court announced its much-awaited decision on aggressive Trump tariffs with 6-3 majority on February 20, striking down tariffs that has been using by the US President Donald Trump as a negotiation tactics for making favourable trade deals for the United States. The decision signalled positive mood and is clearly a major setback for Trump's agenda, but the Trump is Trump as after the court verdict, which deeply disappointed him, he has increased global tariff rate to 15 percent from 10 percent earlier for 150 days. Experts expect the one-day market rally but feel the uncertainty is likely persist as Trump signals for using other ways to impose import taxes.
"In the short run, Supreme Court decision is a major sentiment booster for Indian markets. But we see limited impact of it in the medium term," Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research at Samco Securities said.
On the contrary, this will add to more uncertainty, he believes. "Trump being Trump, has many aces up his sleeves to fight back. Even if he fails to process the tariff, refunds will bring its own challenges. So apart from a one-day relief we don't expect this to be a catalyst for the markets," he said.
Global Economic Data
On the economic releases front, the US weekly jobless claims and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures, factory orders along with speeches from several FOMC officials will be closely watched as investors seek clearer guidance on the timing of the Federal Reserve's next rate cut.
Further, the focus will also be on the Japan's retail sales housing starts, and construction orders for Japan.
US-Iran Tensions, and Oil Prices
Oil prices jumped to the highest level since June 2025, with the Brent crude oil futures rising 5.92 percent to US$71.76 a barrel on reports that Trump issued Iran a 10–15-day deadline to reach a nuclear agreement. Growing US military deployments have heightened fears of disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint handling roughly one-third of global seaborne oil trade.
This is one of the major negative factors for the oil importing countries like India which imports 80-90 percent of its oil.
Meanwhile, a second round of Ukraine-Russia peace talks ended without progress. This, experts feel, reinforces expectations that Western sanctions on Russian exports will persist. Additional support came from the EIA report of a surprise 9-million-barrel draw in crude inventories, reversing much of the prior week’s build. Given the shortened diplomatic timeline and elevated geopolitical tensions, oil prices are likely to remain supported by a sustained risk premium, Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Securities.
Q3 GDP Growth
Back home, the market participants will focus on the GDP numbers for quarter ended December 2025 and second estimates for full year (FY26) economic growth, releasing on February 27, and its implications on earnings momentum and broader market positioning. As per the preliminary estimates, the economy is expected to grow 7.4 percent in current financial year (FY26) against 6.5 percent growth in previous year. The GDP growth in Q2FY26 (July-September period) was 8.2 percent, while rating agency ICRA expects Q3FY26 GDP growth to moderate to 7.2 percent, citing slower expansion in services and agriculture despite improved industrial performance.
Further, fiscal deficit numbers for January, bank loan & deposit growth for fortnight ended February 6, and foreign exchange reserves data for week ended February 20 will also be announced the same day.
The mood at the FIIs desk will also be watched in the coming weeks, as they have been intermittently buying in current month but markets need sustainable inflow. FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors) were net sellers in the week passing by, net offloading Rs 638 crore worth shares and as a result, their net outflow for current month was little more than Rs 2,000 crore, as per provisional data. Overall, experts still hopeful for strong FII flow in the current year after major outflow in the past calendar year, citing the improving earnings and healthy economic growth.
However, DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors) remained net buyers to the tune of Rs 4,335 crore during the week, taking the total current month's buying to Rs 14,111 crore.
Meanwhile, the rupee weakened by 0.19 percent to finish the week at 90.68 against the US dollar, after rising in the previous two weeks.
The primary market will have a busy schedule next week as more than Rs 4,400 crore worth nine IPOs are opening for subscription including four amounting to Rs 4,173-crore from mainboard segment. Renewable energy provider Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions, and cotton yarns producer Shree Ram Twistex will open their IPOs (initial public offering) worth Rs 3,100 crore, and Rs 110 crore, respectively, on February 23.
Further, PNGS Reva Diamond Jewellery will launch its Rs 380-crore public issue on February 24, followed by the Rs 583-crore worth IPO of Omnitech Engineering, the precision engineered components and assemblies maker, on February 25.
In the SME segment, Mobilise App Lab, Kiaasa Retail, and Accord Transformer & Switchgear will open their public issues on February 23, followed by Yaap Digital offer on February 25, and Striders Impex issue on February 26.
Apart from new IPO launches, fertility services provider Gaudium IVF & Women Health (from the mainboard segment), and decorative laminates and plywood maker Manilam Industries India (from SME section) will close their IPOs February 24, and make market debut on February 27. Trading in garment manufacturing and supply chain company Fractal Industries, and soybean crude oil maker Yashhtej Industries shares will commence on the BSE SME on February 24, and February 25, respectively.
Technical View
Technically, there are mixed signals from technical and momentum indicators. The Nifty 50 bounced back and finished last week slightly above the short-term moving averages (10- and 20-week EMAs), as well as above the previous week’s low, which is positive. However, it could not hold above the midline of the Bollinger Bands (20-week SMA, which is slightly above 25,700) on a closing basis.
If the index extends its uptrend next week and sustains above 25,700, it may enter bullish momentum. A convincing break above the crucial resistance level of 26,000 can open the door to a record high. However, as long as it remains below 26,000, consolidation may be seen, with 25,400 acting as a support level, experts said.
F&O Cues
The weekly options data indicated that the Nifty 50 is expected to be in the 25,000-26,000 range in the short term, as the decisive close on either side of the range can give firm direction.
The 26,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest, followed by the 25,800 and 25,700 strikes, with the maximum Call writing at the 25,650, 26,050 and 26,150 strikes. On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was placed at the 25,000 strike, followed by the 25,500, and 25,400 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 25,500, 25,600 and 25,550 strikes.
India VIX
Meanwhile, the India VIX (volatility index), which measures expected market volatility, soared 8 percent for the week to 14.36, in addition to 11.3 percent rally in previous week. Further, it climbed above all key moving averages, which all signalled concerns for bulls and rising uncertainty. The comfort for bulls will possible only if the VIX drops decisively below 12 level.
Corporate Action
Here are key corporate actions taking place in coming week:
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