As crude rattles Dalal Street, what will it take for markets to rise again? Sunil Shah points to one number

Benchmark indices dropped up to 3% as Brent crude surged to around $119 per barrel amid supply disruptions linked to the West Asia conflict.

• Indian markets fell sharply as global crude prices surged
• Sensex and Nifty dropped nearly 3 percent amid oil spike
• Crude prices ease after G7 reserve release, partial recovery noted

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Indian equity markets may struggle to sustain a rally unless crude oil prices decline significantly and tensions in West Asia ease, stock market expert Sunil Shah said, as a surge in global oil prices triggered a sharp sell-off on Dalal Street.

“Unless the crude oil prices go back to $75 and unless the situation in West Asia is diffused and there is some kind of agreement, it is very difficult for the market to go up from here because we may see in between some kind of technical rebounds but undertone is bearish,” Shah said.

He said the concern stems from India’s dependence on imported energy and the impact of higher oil prices on economic growth.

#WATCH | Mumbai: Stock Market Expert Sunil Shah says, "Unless the crude oil prices go back to $75 and unless the situation in West Asia is diffused and there is some kind of agreement, it is very difficult for the market to go up from here because we may see some kind of… https://t.co/mfVRlysX7Mpic.twitter.com/2JcjwuKvcb

— ANI (@ANI) March 9, 2026

“Seventy to seventy-five percent of our energy needs we import and high energy prices has direct correlation with the GDP growth of our country,” Shah said. “If GDP growth is not what we have estimated, in that event it has impact on overall corporate India and corporate earnings and corporate top lines.”

“If they come down because of these inflationary energy prices, then certainly the markets will come down,” he added.

Shah also said the current market pressure is linked to geopolitical developments rather than domestic economic conditions.

“So it is nothing to do with the current macro or the corporate India but due to geopolitical scenario in West Asia which is now resulting in high crude oil prices which can have a huge negative impact on our economy,” he said.

He added that the evolving geopolitical situation has increased uncertainty in global capital flows.

“It is a very fluid situation. Nobody knows where the capital flight will go to and what kind of safe harbour they look for capital. Very difficult to predict anything,” Shah said.

Sensex, Nifty tumble as oil surge rattles markets

Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty opened sharply lower on March 9 as global crude prices spiked and weak global cues triggered broad-based selling across sectors.

The Sensex plunged 2,345.89 points, or 2.97 percent, to 76,573.01, while the Nifty dropped 708.75 points, or 2.89 percent, to 23,741.70.

All 16 major sectoral indices traded in the red during the session. Broader markets also witnessed selling pressure, with the Nifty Smallcap100 and Nifty Midcap100 indices declining about 3 percent each.

Oil spike intensifies global market volatility

The decline in equities followed a sharp rise in global crude prices.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged about 26 percent in early trade to around USD 119 per barrel, the highest level since July 2022.

The increase followed supply disruptions from the Middle East amid the ongoing conflict in the region. According to the information provided, Iraq and Kuwait have begun cutting oil output, adding to earlier liquefied natural gas reductions from Qatar as shipments from the region were disrupted.

Asian markets also saw steep declines. South Korea’s Kospi fell more than 7 percent, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 6.5 percent. China’s Shanghai SSE Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng were also trading lower.

US markets ended Friday in the red. Wall Street futures were down up to 2 percent, indicating a weak opening for US markets later in the day.

Markets recover slightly as crude prices retreat

The benchmark indices staged a partial recovery later in the session as crude prices eased from earlier highs.

At 11:25 am, the Sensex was down 1,900.27 points, or 2.41 percent, at 77,018.63, while the Nifty was down 603.30 points, or 2.47 percent, at 23,847.15.

Market breadth remained weak, with 636 shares advancing, 3,179 declining and 136 unchanged.

Crude drops after reports of potential reserve release

One factor behind the easing in oil prices was a report that G7 countries are considering releasing crude from emergency reserves.

US oil prices fell about $15 per barrel within two hours on March 9 and were trading below $104 per barrel following reports that G7 nations may release around 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves.

Strategic oil reserves are typically deployed during supply disruptions to stabilise energy markets and ensure availability of crude supplies.