Hormuz risks put over a tenth of India’s non-oil exports at stake

United States has started carrying out strikes on Iran, US media reported on February 28, after Israel said it had attacked its long-standing regional adversary. (AFP images)

• Over 13 percent of India's non-oil exports pass through Hormuz
• Tensions in Hormuz could disrupt India's trade with Gulf nations
• Key sectors at risk include engineering, gems, and food products

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Rising geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could threaten more than a tenth of India’s non-oil exports, highlighting the growing vulnerability of trade flows passing through one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, according to a Moneycontrol analysis.

Israel and the United States on February 28 launched air strikes on Iran, pushing the region to the brink of conflict for the second time in eight months. Tehran responded within hours with retaliatory missile and drone strikes, raising fears of a wider escalation that could disrupt maritime trade routes across West Asia.

For India, the risks extend beyond energy security. While three of India’s major crude suppliers ship oil through the Hormuz passage, a significant portion of non-oil trade is also exposed to disruptions in the region.

India exported nearly $47.6 billion worth of non-oil goods to Gulf economies dependent on shipping routes linked to the Strait of Hormuz. This represents roughly 13.2 percent of India’s total non-oil exports, estimated at $360.2 billion, underscoring the scale of potential exposure if shipping flows are disrupted.

The United Arab Emirates accounts for the largest share of India’s exposure, with exports valued at $28.5 billion, followed by Saudi Arabia at $11.7 billion.

Other strategically important markets include Iraq ($2.8 billion), Kuwait ($2.1 billion), Qatar ($1.7 billion) and Iran ($1.25 billion).

The Strait of Hormuz — located between Iran and Oman — is among the world’s busiest maritime corridors, handling a substantial share of global energy shipments alongside large volumes of merchandise trade.

Any disruption, even temporary, could increase freight costs, delay deliveries and alter trade flows across Asia and Europe.

Unlike oil imports, where India can gradually diversify sourcing across suppliers, non-oil exports remain closely tied to Gulf demand.

Key sectors exposed include engineering goods, gems and jewellery, food products, chemicals and construction materials, all of which rely heavily on uninterrupted maritime logistics.

An escalation in hostilities could therefore affect not only energy markets but also India’s export momentum.