Trump years saw India step up US cotton purchases; trade dynamics may shift again

India was seventh largest importer of raw cotton

• India's share of US cotton exports peaked at 7.7 percent in 2019
• US share of India's cotton imports fell to 19.3 percent by 2024
• Proposed India-US trade deal may boost US cotton imports

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India’s cotton trade with the US strengthened during US President Donald Trump’s first term, with New Delhi emerging as a larger buyer of American cotton compared with earlier years, according to a Moneycontrol analysis of trade data.

India’s share of US cotton exports expanded from 1.5 percent in 2014 to 4.7 percent in 2016, around the time Trump assumed office. The trend continued upward, with India’s share reaching 6 percent in 2017 and peaking at 7.7 percent by 2019.

However, pandemic disruptions later pushed India’s share back to about 3 percent, where it has broadly stabilised in recent years.

A similar pattern is visible in India’s import reliance on American cotton. The US's share of India’s cotton imports climbed sharply to 47.9 percent in 2017 and 53.2 percent in 2018, before easing gradually as sourcing diversified. By 2024, the US accounted for about 19.3 percent of India’s cotton imports, suggesting reduced dependence but continued trade engagement.

Despite the moderation, India remains a significant destination for American cotton. In 2024, India was the seventh-largest importer of US raw cotton, buying roughly $209 million worth, only slightly below Bangladesh’s imports. China, Pakistan and Vietnam were the largest buyers that year.

Trade flows could shift again if the proposed interim India–US trade agreement materialises. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has indicated that Indian textile exporters may receive a zero-reciprocal-duty window for garments made using US cotton, a move that could incentivise greater sourcing of American fibre.

The development comes amid intensifying competition from Bangladesh, which has already secured favourable access to US markets and ranks among the top importers of US cotton. Earlier Moneycontrol analysis suggested that about one-fourth of India’s cotton trade — roughly $1.5 billion — could face competitive pressure if Bangladesh enjoys more favourable trade terms.

The next phase of negotiations between New Delhi and Washington could therefore play a decisive role in shaping future cotton trade patterns.