GDP numbers unlikely to change with new series: MoSPI secretary Saurabh Garg

New GDP series to help better state accounts

The statistics ministry is not expecting GDP expectations to change significantly even after the release of the new data series in February, MoSPI secretary Saurabh Garg said on December 23.

"Too early to say, on its impact on GDP numbers. In general, we don't expect much changes from what our previous expectations are," Garg said.

The government is set to release the new GDP series on February 27  alongside a new inflation series. The revised national accounts framework will also include back-series data for 2022–23, 2023–24 and 2024–25, enabling continuity and comparison.

Indian economy surprised with a 8.2 percent growth in the second quarter, prompting revision of FY26 growth to upwards of 7 percent. The Reserve Bank of India now expects growth at 7.3 percent.

The availability of real-time data such as Goods and Services Tax Network (GSTN) filings will help states estimate growth more accurately under India’s revised GDP methodology.

“We now have a lot of real-time data available with GSTN and we will be able to use that to help estimate state domestic product. We will have better triangulation mechanisms available,” Garg said.

The ministry will also roll out capacity-building workshops for states to strengthen Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) estimates.

Garg highlighted the ministry’s efforts to better measure the informal economy — traditionally one of the most challenging aspects of national accounting. “The Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) will inform the base revision in GDP, with more granular and more frequent information now available,” he said.

Speaking at the same event, chief economic adviser to the government V Anantha Nageswaran cautioned that informality is inherently difficult to measure.

“Measuring informality is not an easy exercise because there are no uniform measures across the world,” Nageswaran said. “We are often overestimating informality because small businesses do not always make a clear distinction between personal and business accounts.”

Garg also said the government is working with states to develop satellite accounts in fields such as culture, digital economy and tourism, in line with the upcoming System of National Accounts (SNA) 2025 revision, likely to be adopted globally from 2029.

On inflation measurement, he sai the ministry is expanding coverage across urban and rural markets, while also incorporating e-commerce price data and other digital sources to better capture changing consumption patterns.

The ministry is set to launch the new Annual Survey of Service Sector Enterprises in the coming weeks, aiming to improve measurement of the sectors that accounts for over half of India's output.

The government also plans to introduce an Index of Service Production sometime next year, complementing existing industrial indicators.

A comprehensive National Product Classification, covering both goods and services, is also expected within the next six months. This will build on the new National Industrial Classification framework that was notified earlier this year and will be used across official surveys and statistical outputs.