Joe Biden may pay dearly at home for volte-face on ‘pariah’ Saudi Arabia

U.S. President Joe Biden waves before his departure to Saudi Arabia from Ben Gurion airport in Lod near Tel Aviv, Israel Friday, July 15, 2022. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP)

Joe Biden’s first visit to West Asia as the United States president did not quite live up to the expected hype. Rather, as was predicted by sceptics within and outside the Democratic Party, it ended with a controversy that is likely to play out in the run-up to the crucial November midterm parliamentary elections in the US.

The President’s team hyped up Saudi Arabia’s decision to open its airspace to all Israeli flights as a major foreign policy gain with Biden calling it a “historic decision.” But his decision to eat humble pie and re-engage with Saudi Arabia, a country he once threatened to turn into a “pariah” state, is likely to haunt him politically in the coming months.

Additionally, there is no indication at the moment that Saudi Arabia, the leader of the Sunni world and custodian of the two Holy Mosques, will soon follow its other Arab neighbours like the United Arab Emirates in establishing relations with Israel.

Biden’s four-day visit to the region will be remembered by most people in the US and elsewhere for his infamous fist-bump with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, widely seen in the West as ordering the brutal killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

The US President’s engagement with MBS will not only help in rehabilitating him in the West but will also raise questions about Washington’s sincerity on issues like human rights and rule of law.

The American President is said to have raised the issue of Khashoggi’s murder for which he held the Crown Prince directly responsible during his meeting with the Crown Prince. MBS not only denied his direct involvement in the tragic incident and described it as a mistake but also pointed to Biden the mistake the US made in Iraq, indicating that he was not going to meekly accept Biden’s hectoring on human rights.

Reasons for the U-turn

Two factors had played a crucial role in changing Biden’s stand. One, the steady growth of economic cooperation between China and other countries in West Asia and its investment in infrastructure under its Belt and Road Initiative in the region. Two, Russia’s positive image as a reliable partner after its success in preventing Syria’s disintegration. In the post-Syria war scenario, Moscow became the favoured destination for most West Asia leaders as all were keen to build a partnership with it.

But Russia’s involvement in the Ukraine war and China’s preoccupation with rebuilding its economy after the COVID-19 pandemic has provided the US the opportunity to re-engage with West Asia.

However, if Biden’s maiden sojourn is anything to go by, Washington should be prepared for a tough challenge while re-engaging West Asia.

The American president’s visit to the region came days after the I2U2 virtual summit between India, Israel, the US and UAE to promote and strengthen trade and investment among the four countries and to develop public health and critical and green technology. An outcome of the summit was a commitment by the UAE to invest $2 billion on food parks across India to meet the growing demand in South and West Asia.

Little to show

But though Biden’s maiden visit to West Asia as president was touted as Washington’s re-engagement with the region, he had little to show by way of achievement at the end of his visit.

A key reason for his engagement with Saudi Arabia, the largest producer of oil, was to get an assurance on enhanced oil production to help tide over the ongoing energy crisis in Europe and the US. But no categorical assurance came from Riyadh. US officials are hopeful that a favourable decision could be taken at the forthcoming meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in early August.

The American president has also not found many backers on another crucial issue, reviving the nuclear deal with Iran, which the Biden Administration argues will not only prevent Teheran from producing a nuclear bomb but also lead to a more stable West Asia.

During his four-day trip to the region, Biden visited Israel and engaged with the leadership there before visiting Saudi Arabia to participate in a summit with members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and other regional leaders.

Biden’s assurance to the GCC and other leaders that America was “here to stay” and would not leave West Asia to China or Russia was also met with scepticism rather than enthusiasm because of US leaders' track record in the region.

Eating his words

Biden had stayed away from the region after assuming the US presidency and decided to undertake the trip nearly a year after America’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Experts said the US President was partly open to “prioritising order” in West Asia over other aims such as the protection of human rights and the promotion of democracy as he re-opened talks with Iran. But he was reluctant to deal with the Saudi Crown Prince.

Right from his campaign Biden was vocal in his criticism of MBS for his role in Khashoggi’s brutal murder. He had declared Saudi Arabia a “pariah” state and for months refused to talk to the Saudi Crown Prince, even though he is acknowledged as the heir-apparent to the 86-year-old Saudi monarch.

The US has traditionally been the key security provider for Saudi Arabia while the country’s large oil deposit and lucrative market for weapons have sustained America’s interest in the country for decades. But relations suffered after the 9/11 terror attacks in the US when most perpetrators were found to be Saudi nationals. Though relations were mended in subsequent years, the old chemistry the two sides once enjoyed seemed to have been lost forever.

Biden’s decision to ignore MBS and the US’s critical view of Saudi involvement in Yemen and the Democrat President’s attempt to revive the nuclear deal with Iran further widened the gap between the two sides.

Indeed, had it not been for the immense pressure on the US economy, there may well have been no fist bump.

The writer is a commentator on political and foreign policy related issues.