Exports likely to grow by 3% to USD 850 billion this fiscal: GTRI

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• India's exports may grow 3 percent to USD 850 billion in 2025-26 says GTRI
• Rising protectionism and climate barriers pose challenges for export growth
• EU carbon tax reduces Indian steel exports by 24% due to compliance issues.

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India's goods and services exports are likely to grow by 3 per cent to USD 850 billion in 2025-26, think tank GTRI said on Thursday.

In 2024-25, the overall exports touched USD 825 billion (USD 438 billion in merchandise and USD 387 billion in services).

Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said the country's exports in 2026 will face a far tougher global trade environment than it has seen in years.

Rising protectionism in advanced economies, weakening global demand and new climate-linked trade barriers are colliding just as India is trying to scale up exports, it said.

The result is an outlook marked less by expansion and more by the challenge of holding ground, GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava said.

"In FY26, goods exports are likely to stay broadly flat, squeezed by weak global demand and renewed US tariff pressure, while services exports may inch past USD 400 billion. That would lift total exports to roughly USD 850 billion," he said.

The external environment is deteriorating fast, he said, adding that Europe presents a different, but equally costly, challenge.

The European Union will activate its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on January 1, 2026, effectively imposing a carbon tax on imports.

Even before payments begin, compliance and reporting requirements have already pushed India's steel exports to the EU down by about 24 per cent, he noted.

"From 2026, EU importers will price Indian goods inclusive of CBAM costs, with payments settled through certificate surrender in 2027," he added.

GTRI suggested that the government urgently review the performance of its FTAs' sector by sector to ensure they are actually expanding exports, integrating Indian firms into global value chains, and delivering measurable trade gains rather than remaining under-utilised diplomatic trophies.