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Poll | CPI inflation may drop to 6.7% for October on favourable base

Data on October retail inflation, which is set to stay above the central bank's target of 4 percent for the 37th month in a row, will be released later today at 5.30 pm

November 14, 2022 / 01:12 PM IST
Representative image

Representative image

India's headline retail inflation likely dropped sharply in October, the first month after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) failed to meet its inflation mandate, but stayed above the central bank's 6 percent upper bound for the tenth month in a row.

According to a Moneycontrol poll of 16 economists, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is expected to have fallen to 6.7 percent in October from 7.41 percent in September, thanks to a favourable base effect.

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation will release retail inflation data for October at 5.30 pm on November 14.

At 6.7 percent, economists' prediction for last month's inflation print would be the lowest since February, though inflation clocked in at 6.71 percent in July.

ORGANISATIONESTIMATE FOR OCTOBER CPI INFLATION
Barclays6.5%
Societe Generale6.5%
Standard Chartered Bank6.6%
Sunidhi Securities6.62%
IDFC First Bank6.65%
Kotak Mahindra Bank6.66%
HDFC Bank6.68%
ICRA6.7%
CareEdge6.7%
State Bank of India6.71%
Bank of Baroda6.8%
Bank of America Securities6.8%
Deutsche Bank6.8%
YES Bank6.83%
L&T Financial Services6.88%
Motilal Oswal Financial Services7.1%

Speaking at an event on November 13, Governor Shaktikanta Das had said the RBI expects CPI inflation to fall below 7 percent in October.

Favourable base, price momentum

"While a fading of unfavourable base effects was likely the primary driver, the performance of lead indicators also improved—both exports and core sector growth picked up month on month, and auto production growth stayed strong," said Kanika Pasricha, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank.

ORGANISATIONESTIMATE FOR SEPTEMBER IIP GROWTH
Standard Chartered Bank0.7%
IDFC First Bank1.0%
Kotak Mahindra Bank1.7%
CareEdge1.8%
State Bank of India1.8%
YES Bank1.9%
Sunidhi Securities2.2%
Bank of America Securities2.4%
HDFC Bank3.2%
Deutsche Bank3.5%
L&T Financial Services4.2%
Motilal Oswal Financial Services4.3%
Bank of Baroda4.7%
ICRA5.1%

Data released on October 31 showed growth in India's eight core industries surged to 7.9 percent in September, up from 4.1 percent in August.