India's headline retail inflation likely dropped sharply in October, the first month after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) failed to meet its inflation mandate, but stayed above the central bank's 6 percent upper bound for the tenth month in a row.
According to a Moneycontrol poll of 16 economists, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is expected to have fallen to 6.7 percent in October from 7.41 percent in September, thanks to a favourable base effect.
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation will release retail inflation data for October at 5.30 pm on November 14.
At 6.7 percent, economists' prediction for last month's inflation print would be the lowest since February, though inflation clocked in at 6.71 percent in July.
|ORGANISATION||ESTIMATE FOR OCTOBER CPI INFLATION|
|Standard Chartered Bank||6.6%|
|IDFC First Bank||6.65%|
|Kotak Mahindra Bank||6.66%|
|State Bank of India||6.71%|
|Bank of Baroda||6.8%|
|Bank of America Securities||6.8%|
|L&T Financial Services||6.88%|
|Motilal Oswal Financial Services||7.1%|
Favourable base, price momentum
"While a fading of unfavourable base effects was likely the primary driver, the performance of lead indicators also improved—both exports and core sector growth picked up month on month, and auto production growth stayed strong," said Kanika Pasricha, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank.
|ORGANISATION||ESTIMATE FOR SEPTEMBER IIP GROWTH|
|Standard Chartered Bank||0.7%|
|IDFC First Bank||1.0%|
|Kotak Mahindra Bank||1.7%|
|State Bank of India||1.8%|
|Bank of America Securities||2.4%|
|L&T Financial Services||4.2%|
|Motilal Oswal Financial Services||4.3%|
|Bank of Baroda||4.7%|