MC EXCLUSIVE Coal stocks to reach 60 MT by March-end but may not be enough to meet summer power demand

Coal stocks at power plants to touch 60 million tonnes by March-end, up 3.4% on-year

• Thermal plant coal stocks to hit 60 MT by March 2026
• Stocks have grown from 25.6 MT in 2022 to 58 MT in 2025
• India targets 1.31 billion tonnes coal production for FY27

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The government expects thermal power plants to have 60 million tonnes (MT) of coal by March 31, up 3.4 percent from opening stock this fiscal, as it braces for a surge in summer electricity demand, coal ministry sources told Moneycontrol.

The ideal, or “normative”, requirement for this time of the year is around 72 million tonnes, as per data from Central Electricity Authority (CEA). Coal stocks at thermal power plants stood at 58 million tonnes on April 1, 2025. Typically, a “critical status” is triggered when stocks fall below 25 percent of the so-called normative level.

Coal stocks at thermal plants were at 57.7 MT on February 13, up 9.2 percent from in the year-ago period, CEA said.

The stocks are at 77 percent of the normative level of 74.5 million tonnes for this time of the year, compared to 74 percent in the year-ago period.

Coal stocks have improved this fiscal as above normal rains cooled down temperatures, lowering power demand and resulting in improved hydel generation, analysts said.

The country’s peak power demand touched 245 gigawatt (GW) in January, surpassing the summer peak of 243 GW in June 2025. Crisil attributed the surge to heating demand, as it came during the height of North India’s cold wave on January 9.

Coal stock

The government had estimated that peak power demand to reach 270 GW by 2025. In 2024, the peak demand for power reached 250 GW in May, exceeding the government’s projection of 260 GW.

The government expects the peak power demand to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7 percent in the next five years, against the current CAGR of 6 percent.

Crisil Intelligence expects power demand to increase 1-1.5 percent year-on-year to 1,710-1,730 billion units this fiscal.

“A harsh winter and steady economic growth have been key drivers of power demand growth, partially offset by a prolonged monsoon,” Crisil said in a report on February 10.

India has set a target of 1.31 billion tonnes (BT) of coal production for the FY27, as it seeks to reduce import dependence amid rising energy needs.

State-run Coal India is expected to produce a record 1 BT, while captive players are to produce 228 million tonnes in FY27, official sources told Moneycontrol.

Singareni Collieries Company (SCCL), jointly owned by Telangana and the Union government, will produce the remaining 79 million tonnes, sources said.

In FY25, India’s coal production increased 4.98 percent over the previous year to 1.05 BT, the highest ever.