Air-defence neglect, drone focus signal Tehran’s latest military pivot

Iran drones have made a mark

• Iran's air-defense imports drop, leaving skies exposed
• Iran relies on low-cost Shahed drones to exhaust enemy defences
• Missile imports increased; sensors and engines slightly declined.

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Years of underinvestment in air-defence systems have left Iran’s skies vulnerable amid relentless strikes by Israeli and American forces. But at the same time, Tehran has poured resources into producing low-cost drones that have flooded enemy skies, depleted costly interceptors and struck terror in neighbouring nations.

Over the past two decades, air-defence systems have accounted for a shrinking share of Iran’s military imports, while aircraft and missile systems dominated its procurement priorities. The shift is expected to exact a toll on the nation, which is now embroiled in a multi-front conflict in the West Asian region after Israel-US strikes killed its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

But central to Iran's offensive pivot in this war with formidable rivals is the Shahed attack drone that costs as little as $20,000 per unit. Deployed in swarms, they have been successfully battle-tested in Ukraine and Yemen, forcing adversaries to exhaust expensive air-defence systems to counter a low-cost mass-produced threat. With Iran facing the combined airpower of Israel and the US, the Shahed drones will be critical to its strategy.

A Moneycontrol analysis of the share of different weapon categories in Iran’s total imports shows that between 2007-2012 and 2019-2024, the proportion of air-defence systems in Iran’s import basket fell from 4.8 percent to about 4.1 percent, reversing a modest uptick seen in the intermediate 2013–2018 period.

Meanwhile, imported aircraft have remained consistently prominent, accounting for roughly 44 percent of imports in both the earliest and latest periods, underscoring a sustained emphasis on platforms that project power and capability across ranges.

Other key shifts underline evolving priorities. Missiles have increased their slice of the import pie, rising from 11 percent in 2007-2012 to 16 percent in 2019-2024, reflecting growing interest in stand-off strike capability.

Critical subsystems such as sensors and engines have seen modest declines as a proportion of total imports, suggesting either constrained access or a strategic pivot toward indigenisation where possible.

Iran has become self-sufficient in many areas, a theme evident in its export profile.

Although Iran remains a relatively small player in global weapons exports, it has diversified its basket over the years, indicating a push towards specialisation in certain categories.

While Syria and Sudan were the two major buyers of Iranian weapons in 2007-12, by 2019-24, Iran was supplying Russia, Venezuela, Belarus, Tajikistan and Ethiopia, with low-cost Shahed drones.