UltraTech Cement Q4 preview: Net profit, revenue to see higher growth on rising demand, increasing volumes

While most brokerages—except Axis Securities—expect a YoY decline in margins, they anticipate quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) improvements across cement companies, including Ultratech. In Q3FY25, Ultratech reported an EBITDA margin of 16.8 percent.

Cement major UltraTech is set to announce its Q4FY25 earnings on April 28. Brokerages estimate that cement companies, including UltraTech, could post higher revenue and margins driven by increased volumes and stronger cement prices. According to a Moneycontrol poll of seven brokerages, revenue is expected to rise 13 percent year-on-year (YoY) from Rs 20,419 crore in Q4FY24.

Net profit for Q4FY25 is also expected to grow by 3.3 percent YoY to around Rs 2,399 crore. Consensus estimates peg the EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortisation) margin at approximately 19.5 percent, down from about 20.1 percent in Q4FY24. While most brokerages—except Axis Securities—expect a YoY decline in margins, they anticipate quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) improvements across cement companies, including UltraTech. In Q3FY25, Ultratech reported an EBITDA margin of 16.8 percent.

Among the brokerages, Motilal Oswal is the most optimistic, projecting net profit to rise to Rs 2,445 crore from Rs 2,315 crore in Q3FY24. Nuvama is the most cautious, expecting profit to fall to around Rs 2,084 crore.

What factors are driving the earnings?

Most brokerages are positive on Ultratech in their Q4FY25 estimates, expecting the cement major to see improvements across all numbers. Here are the factors expected to drive earnings.

Volume growth

Equirus Securities estimates a 7 percent YoY volume growth, aligning with industry expectations for Q4. Similarly, Yes Securities projects volumes at 36.94 million tonnes (mt), reflecting a 74 percent capacity utilisation and 5.3 percent YoY growth. After a flat H1FY25 and 3–4 percent growth in Q3, industry demand picked up to 7–8 percent YoY in Q4, according to HDFC Securities. However, brokerages caution that a slowdown in government capex may impact overall numbers.

Price increases

Cement prices rose in most regions during Q4. Incred Equities noted a continued demand rebound through the quarter, building on early signs of recovery in December 2024. This demand supported price hikes across most regions, except South India. Axis Securities reports that cement prices rose by Rs 10 in the East, Rs 5 in Central, and Rs 4 in the West and North, while prices declined in the South. Initial hikes of Rs 10–30 per bag were partially rolled back due to weak demand. Price increases were aimed at offsetting a 20 percent rise in pet coke costs. Prices are seen as having bottomed out, with companies planning further hikes of Rs 10–15 per bag in most regions and Rs 25–30 in the South in early April 2025.

Higher realisations

Most analysts expect higher EBITDA per tonne due to improved realisations. Yes Securities projects UltraTech’s EBITDA/tonne at Rs 1,143 in Q4FY25 - up from Rs 953 in Q3, but below Rs 1,173 in Q4FY24. The increase is attributed to marginally higher prices and improved cost efficiency.

What to watch in the results

Analysts will look for commentary on input cost trends, government policy impacts, and demand outlook for the upcoming quarters.

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