HDFC Bank Q3 preview: Modest NII growth likely led by credit offtake; deposit traction in focus

HDFC Bank’s December quarter performance is expected to be shaped by trends in deposit growth and margins

• HDFC Bank Q3FY26 profit seen rising 11 percent YoY to Rs 18,563 crore
• Net interest income projected to grow 7 percent YoY to Rs 32,708 crore
• Investors to watch deposit growth, loan growth, and margin trends

Did our AI summary help?

HDFC Bank is expected to deliver a stable performance for the October-December quarter (Q3FY26), supported by strong credit growth but lagging on the deposit mobilisation front. Analysts will be closely watching for the private lender's credit to deposit ratio and margin guidance going ahead. The bank will announce its Q3 results on January 17, 2026.

According to Moneycontrol’s poll, HDFC Bank’s net interest income (NII) is projected to rise modestly by 7 percent year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 32,708 crore in Q3FY26, compared to Rs 30,653 crore in Q3FY25. Meanwhile, the lender’s profit is estimated to grow by 11 percent YoY to Rs 18,563 crore in Q3FY26, from Rs 16,735 crore in the same period last year.

Estimates of analysts polled by Moneycontrol are shown to be in a narrow range, meaning any positive or negative surprises may elicit a sharp reaction in the stock price. Among the brokerages polled, YES Securities rolled out the most bullish projections while Kotak Institutional Equities forecasted the slowest growth for HDFC Bank.

What factors are driving the earnings?

Strong loan growth: The lender's average advances under management during the quarter came in at Rs 28.64 lakh crore, registering a growth of about 9 percent compared with Rs 26.28 lakh crore in the same period last year. Average deposits for the December quarter rose to Rs 27.52 lakh crore, up 12.2 percent YoY.

Stable margins: Brokerages expect margins to be stable at 3.5 percent in Q3FY26, while cost ratios are expected to remain steady.

Rising slippages: Analysts at Systematix argued that slippages are expected to increase marginally on sequential basis. However, provisions are also expected to be lower sequentially due to one-off higher provision in Q2FY26.

What should investors keep an eye on this quarter?

Investors are likely to keep a close eye on trends in deposit growth, loan growth, and net interest margins, which will serve as key indicators of the bank’s financial strength and profitability outlook in the coming quarters.