Power sector results preview for March FY12: Emkay

Emkay Global Financial Services has come with its March 2012 quarterly earning estimates for power sector. According to the research firm EBITDA margin will decline by 145bps YoY while to improve by 484bps QoQ. Adjusted net profit will grow by ~47% QoQ and ~7% YoY.

• For 4Q12 results: We expect positive surprises from- KSK Energy (higher PLF in Wardha), PGCIL (higher capitalization), CESC (addtl revenue from 13% tariff hike) and NHPC (RoE grossing up at regular rate). Negative surprises are expected from- Adani Power (supply under PPA with GUVNL, fuel cost and depreciated rupee).
• Lots of fast paced events leading to confusion and in turn huge volatility in stock prices. But on the other side, this also is giving lots of opportunities to buy into fundamentally strong businesses/assets at cheaper values.

Company Name	Net Sales (Rs mn)			APAT (Rs mn)
	Q4FY12	Q3FY12	Q4FY11	Q4FY12	Q3FY12	Q4FY11
Adani Power	15888	10594	8556	2720	-634	1744
CESC	12754	10320	8750	1917	740	1120
Gujarat Ind Power	4215	3877	3117	431	168	719
Jaiprakash Power	3490	3967	1480	305	595	172
JSW Energy	19024	17514	14169	733	274	2048
KSK Energy	6607	5696	3490	951	755	377
Lanco Infratech	33172	30290	20548	1542	777	-142
Nava Bharat	2285	2336	2681	582	378	651
NTPC	167110	153323	155189	26513	21630	29824
Reliance Power	5941	4573	4955	2257	2039	1866

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