ICICI Securities's research report on Oil and Natural Gas Corporation
ONGC’s Q3FY26 adj. EBITDA/PAT (standalone) came in at INR 168bn/INR 83.7bn (-9%/+2% YoY) vs. I-Sec’s estimate of INR 174/INR 81.7bn. Consol. EBITDA/PAT stood at INR 268.6/INR 99.8bn (+3%/+16% YoY). Oil & gas output for Q3 was flattish QoQ at 10.2mt, and 9M output at 30.6 is flat YoY. With KG basin to reach ~8mmscmd by FY27, along with Daman upside (4–5mmscmd) and DSF II production, share of NWG could increase to >35%, from its current 18–20%, in 3-4 years; thus, improving gas contribution, even as oil sees USD 64–66/bbl realisation over FY26-28E.
Outlook
We cut FY26E EPS by 5.8% to factor in lower realisations, but FY27E/FY28E EPS is raised 5%/5.6% to bake in higher production and gas realisations. We revise our TP to INR 332 (earlier INR 320); retain BUY.
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